Bitcoin Crashed: Why I'm Still Buying | Jordi Visser
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Companies
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Key Quotes
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Topics
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: Bitcoin Crashed: Why I’m Still Buying | Jordi Visser
This 55-minute episode of the Pomp Podcast features host Anthony Pompliano (Pomp) interviewing macro investor Jordi Visser. The central theme revolves around Visser’s continued aggressive buying of Bitcoin despite recent market panic, contrasting this with broader macroeconomic fears, the perceived failure of the traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle, and the critical role of US-China trade dynamics, particularly concerning rare earth minerals.
1. Focus Area: The discussion centers on Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin), Macroeconomics, Market Sentiment, and Geopolitical Risk (US-China Trade). Specific sub-topics include the Bitcoin halving cycle, AI market narratives, credit contraction fears, and the strategic importance of rare earth minerals.
2. Key Technical Insights:
- Bitcoin Cycle vs. Macro Correlation: Visser notes that Bitcoin has recently failed to exhibit its expected high beta against traditional markets, suggesting the traditional four-year halving cycle might be temporarily overridden or synchronized with the broader macro cycle (e.g., Fed policy, S&P earnings).
- AI Narrative Dominance: The current market narrative is overwhelmingly dominated by the AI boom, leading to the creation of localized “bubbles” (e.g., in zero-revenue energy names), but Visser argues the overall AI acceleration is underestimated.
- Gold as a Fear Trade Indicator: The correlation between gold buying and specific geopolitical/default fears (like JGB yields) suggests gold acts primarily as a fear hedge, whereas Bitcoin might align more closely with risk-on assets (stocks) when macro fears subside.
3. Market/Investment Angle:
- Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation: Visser explicitly states he is “buying Bitcoin all the way down to 100,” viewing the current dip as an opportunity created by market participants selling ahead of the perceived four-year cycle peak.
- The Post-Cycle Thesis: Visser believes that once Bitcoin breaks through previous all-time highs, the “four-year cycle belief” will be invalidated, removing a major psychological overhang for future price action, similar to how equity markets mature beyond specific seasonal beliefs.
- Skepticism on Gold’s Near-Term Performance: While long-term bullish on gold, Visser suggests that if a US-China deal materializes, gold could underperform next year as the “fear trade” subsides, potentially leading to retail disappointment. He favors non-Mag 7 stocks and AI infrastructure names for the coming year, assuming the Fed cuts rates.
4. Notable Companies/People:
- Jordi Visser: The guest, a macro investor who is aggressively buying Bitcoin despite current market fear.
- Anthony Pompliano (Pomp): Host, emphasizing the need to learn from interesting people and noting his own investment firm’s disclaimer.
- Michael Howell: Mentioned for his chart illustrating the four-year cycle of monetary policy expansion and collapse.
- Keith Orboy: Referenced for correctly timing the 2021 market top based on the Fed’s shift in monetary policy signaling (raising rates vs. cutting rates in the dot-com bubble).
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion:
- US-China Trade & Tariffs: The critical discussion point is the ongoing trade negotiation, particularly the leverage China holds via rare earth minerals.
- Rare Earths as Geopolitical Leverage: Rare earths are essential for nearly all modern electronics, cars, and military hardware. China controls the mining and processing (due to the toxicity of the process), giving them significant bargaining power against the US, which Visser believes is the most critical factor in the current geopolitical tension. A deal here is seen as a major market catalyst.
6. Future Implications: The conversation suggests a bifurcation in market drivers:
- Macro/Geopolitical: The resolution of the US-China trade conflict (especially rare earths) will likely trigger a shift away from fear-based assets like gold and toward risk assets like equities and potentially Bitcoin.
- Technological: The AI acceleration is underestimated, suggesting strong performance for related infrastructure stocks, regardless of broader macro health.
- Bitcoin Maturation: The industry is moving past reliance on the four-year cycle, indicating a shift toward a more mature asset class whose price action will increasingly correlate with global liquidity and risk appetite rather than internal supply shocks alone.
7. Target Audience: This episode is highly valuable for Crypto Investors (especially long-term Bitcoin holders), Macro Hedge Fund Managers, and Professionals tracking US-China geopolitical risk and supply chain vulnerabilities.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
Doge
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Layer 1 Blockchain/Asset
Twitter
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Web3/Social Media
OpenAI
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Web3/AI Infrastructure
Remember Blas
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unknown
Silicon Valley Bank
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unknown
Western Alliance
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unknown
Bank Group
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unknown
So Zion
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unknown
If I
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unknown
Jerome Powell
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unknown
So SOFR
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unknown
Try Color
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unknown
Way That Structurally Increases Geopolitical Risk Across Global Manufacturing
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unknown
Strategic Export Control Campaign Expanding Rare Earth Export Controls
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unknown
Beijing Activities Stage
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unknown
💬 Key Insights
"The end game is not crashing. The end game is it being replaced by the new system. The new system is stablecoins. The new system is Bitcoin. The new system is tokenization. All of this is coming, and next year is going to be a boom year for all of those things."
"Bitcoin is going to be a major, major part once the deal is done because then we've set the table between gold and stablecoins."
"China has decided that they will back their yuan in gold. So they're looking at gold in yuan terms. On the U.S. side, we've chosen stablecoins. These are the two kind of new worlds that are going on."
"They keep building as well, being the only major CVA player to launch decentralized MPC custody to protect against single-entry failure."
"Do you buy into this gold runs in 100 days later, Bitcoin runs? The data definitely suggests that. Do you think that there is some relationship or correlation there between gold kind of gets out ahead and then we will see Bitcoin rise afterwards and they're tied together in some way? I do think there's a connection."
"Is the four-year cycle going to hold or not? I don't have a strong opinion, which scares the hell out of me."
📊 Topics
#artificialintelligence
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#investment
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