Weekend Crypto Crash?🔥Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: Weekend Crypto Crash?🔥Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo
This 21-minute episode features a technical analysis discussion between the host (Paul) and guest Evan Aldo, focusing primarily on the immediate price action and future projections for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other major Layer 1 (L1) cryptocurrencies, set against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly the US-China trade tensions and the potential end of the government shutdown.
1. Focus Area
The primary focus is Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis (TA), specifically examining Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and Solana (SOL). Secondary themes include the impact of macroeconomic factors (US-China trade negotiations, government shutdown) on crypto markets, and investment portfolio strategy (asset allocation, risk management).
2. Key Technical Insights
- Ethereum (ETH) Critical Support: ETH must hold the $3,700 level. Losing this for an extended period signals the potential end of the current bull run. A break above $4,000 suggests a run toward $4,600, with a potential cycle peak near $5,700 by early November.
- Bitcoin (BTC) Key Threshold: BTC’s bull run is likely over if it loses the $100k barrier for more than a day or two. Bullish momentum (RSI, money flow) suggests a potential move toward $120K or even $130K by early November if key support holds.
- Long-Term ETH Indicator: Evan is watching a specific three-week trigger wave indicator on ETH, predicting a market cycle peak signal (a red dot) sometime between late Q4 and early January, similar to historical peaks in late 2021/early 2018.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- “Buy the Dip” Sentiment: Despite market wariness due to global tensions, noted investor Tom Lee is advising clients to “buy the dip,” suggesting underlying optimism.
- Portfolio Positioning: A significant majority of polled investors (nearly 80%) are heavily allocated (60% or more) into the crypto market, with Evan himself being highly concentrated (70-80% in ETH/crypto).
- ETH vs. BTC Rotation: Evan suggests that, currently, due to technical positioning and the potential end of Quantitative Tightening (QT), Ethereum looks slightly less risky than Bitcoin, a rare stance for him.
- Gold/Silver Correction: The host predicts that if the government shutdown resolves, gold and silver rallies will end, causing them to “bleed against Bitcoin and Ethereum,” with a potential 20-30% correction in gold by early 2026.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Evan Aldo: The technical analyst providing detailed chart breakdowns and trade setups.
- Tom Lee: Cited as a “super investor” who remains bullish and advocates for buying dips, having called Bitcoin early and now being heavily invested in Ethereum.
- Scott Besson: Mentioned in the context of geopolitical commentary, specifically regarding the US administration’s stance on China tariffs.
- Salt Lending (Sponsor): Highlighted for their services, particularly the Salt Shield no-liquidation solution for taking loans against digital assets (LTVs around 30-50%).
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
The discussion touched upon the US-China trade conflict, noting the market’s fear surrounding potential 100% tariffs, despite low probability (9% on Polymarket). The resolution of the US government shutdown was framed as a significant catalyst that could shift capital flows away from traditional safe havens (gold/silver) and into crypto.
6. Future Implications
The conversation leans toward cautious optimism for Q4, contingent on holding key technical levels. The expectation is for a significant upward move toward $130K for BTC and $4,700+ for ETH by early November, potentially leading to cycle peaks by the end of the year or early 2026, as signaled by long-term indicators. Diversification across major L1s (ETH, SOL, BNB, SUI, AVAX) is recommended over highly speculative assets.
7. Target Audience
Intermediate to Advanced Crypto Traders and Investors who rely on technical analysis, are interested in macro correlations affecting digital assets, and are actively managing high-risk/high-reward portfolio allocations.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"Theoretically, if the Fed ends QT this month, which may happen, you know, the lower caps that you mentioned, like WLD, probably would do the best, but we don't exactly know when that's going to happen. So I think diversification would be the biggest thing here."
"As this VWAP comes down, you're going to see a red dot here on this three-week that's going to happen anywhere from a week or two to the end of the year, even January. And that would be kind of the market cycle peak where I would say is a good place to really get out..."
"I would even say it's like maybe slightly less risk to get into ETH right now. I know some of the maxis will hate me for that, but just right now, ETH looks real good against Bitcoin."
"Like all those ones you mentioned, they definitely would do well. I mean, I think that, you know, at this point, like sure, if you're holding garbage like meme coins, stuff like that, that's very high risk, sure, sell for tax loss harvesting, move it into something safer. That makes the most logical sense..."
"Where would you stay right now through this next leg? Would you rotate out of any of those right now in terms of those big L1s? I would just say stay, stay, stay, stay."
"It's kind of the red dot above the zero line here, anchor trigger wave in quarter four. You haven't seen it yet, but you're probably going to see it by early January at the latest. Well, and that will be a key indicator, I think, as we look into it."