Bitcoin’s $10K Candles Are Coming — Get Ready | Anthony & John Pompliano
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: Bitcoin’s $10K Candles Are Coming — Get Ready | Anthony & John Pompliano
This 50-minute episode of the POMP podcast, featuring Anthony Pompliano and John Pompliano, centers on analyzing recent market volatility (specifically in Bitcoin) through the lens of macroeconomic policy, geopolitical maneuvering, and the changing nature of asset valuation. The core narrative is one of resilience in the face of manufactured fear and the structural shift in how central banks manage economic downturns, favoring asset inflation over recessionary pain.
1. Focus Area
The discussion primarily focuses on Cryptocurrency Markets (Bitcoin), Traditional Finance (Stock Market), Macroeconomic Policy (Federal Reserve actions), and the Geopolitical use of financial markets as a negotiation tool.
2. Key Technical Insights
- Bitcoin Liquidity Clearing: The recent $19 billion liquidation event in Bitcoin effectively “wiped out excess leverage,” which is viewed as a necessary cleansing mechanism that clears the way for higher prices.
- 24/7 Market Appeal: Geopolitical events occurring outside of traditional stock market hours (like Friday evening to Sunday) highlight the functional advantage of crypto markets being open 24/7, driving adoption among those seeking immediate reaction capabilities.
- Dollar vs. Percentage Volatility: The market vernacular for Bitcoin remains focused on absolute dollar movements (e.g., “$2,000 move”) rather than percentage changes, masking the fact that as Bitcoin matures, the dollar value of its percentage moves will naturally increase (e.g., a $15,000 move might only be a 1% change).
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Pessimism is Overstated: The hosts argue that the current market is not a bubble because too many respected figures (like Howard Marks) are acknowledging high valuations but dismissing imminent crashes. A true bubble peaks when everyone is bullish.
- Fed Playbook Dominance: The Federal Reserve’s primary directive is now preventing prolonged (18+ month) bear markets or recessions, even at the cost of dollar purchasing power. Any significant market dip will likely trigger immediate rate cuts and stimulus, reinforcing the “buy the dip” mentality for asset owners.
- Maturing Asset Class: Bitcoin is described as being in its “teenage years”—more mature than before, but not yet an “adult” asset class (which they define as crossing a $10 trillion market cap threshold, where central banks and major institutions fully commit).
4. Notable Companies/People
- Donald Trump: Mentioned for his perceived use of social media and market announcements (like tariff threats) as a tool for geopolitical negotiation, often timing announcements around market open/close.
- Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): Cited as an example of a major institutional leader acknowledging the current environment as a bull market.
- Howard Marks (Oaktree Capital): Noted for his recent comments suggesting he is not worried about a bubble or crash, signaling a shift even among traditional value investors.
- Palantir: Used as a case study for modern corporate efficiency, where CEOs are emphasizing growing revenue with fewer employees, signaling a shift in corporate valuation drivers toward productivity over headcount expansion.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
The discussion heavily implies a policy environment where inflationary stimulus is prioritized over deflationary stability. The hosts assert that the Fed would rather destroy the purchasing power of the USD (citing a 30% loss post-pandemic) than endure a prolonged recession, effectively creating a floor under asset prices.
6. Future Implications
The industry is heading toward greater acceptance of asset price inflation as the default economic condition. For investors, this means the strategy of “buy the dip” is validated because the Fed’s playbook ensures assets will be supported. Furthermore, the 24/7 nature of crypto will become increasingly attractive as macro events continue to unfold outside traditional trading hours.
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for Active Crypto Investors, Macro Hedge Fund Managers, and Financial Professionals interested in the intersection of monetary policy, geopolitical risk, and digital asset valuation.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"Rather than buy Tesla stock for the earnings because you think they're going to beat on the delivery number, you can instead just go on the prediction market and say, I think they're going to beat the delivery number or not. You've isolated that data point."
"So if you put a prediction market in place, now all of a sudden, people can start to wager on, if you list your home for $300,000 and all of a sudden, people are saying the odds that this home sells for under $270 is 90%. Like, that is a market data point."
"I think that OpenDoor should add prediction markets on the home listings."
"If you start to see movements in it, then that means somebody knows something. Somebody one time told me if the price is moving, there's news. It's just whether you know it or not. True of prediction markets, true of the stock market."
"investors are going to start to put more and more weight on these prediction markets because it's basically an information incentive to get people to contribute to, are they going to beat this number or not."
"BitLayer is taking Bitcoin beyond just a store of value. For the first time, you can put your Bitcoin to work earning yield while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization."