⚠️Atención⚠️ Nunca antes vimos esta métrica en el mercado
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: ⚠️Atención⚠️ Nunca antes vimos esta métrica en el mercado (14 Minutes)
This episode of Crypto Mercados y Pymes focuses on analyzing a novel, internal on-chain market metric that provides short-term directional insights, juxtaposed against a backdrop of escalating global geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions.
1. Focus Area
The primary focus is Cryptocurrency Market Analysis, specifically utilizing an on-chain metric to gauge internal market structure, distinct from traditional price action. Secondary themes include global macroeconomic instability (US-China trade war, recession fears) and the evolving role of digital assets (Bitcoin, Stablecoins) within this environment.
2. Key Technical Insights
- Novel On-Chain Metric: The host introduces and analyzes a specific on-chain metric focused on the internal structure of the market, suggesting it offers short-term predictive value, especially when market sentiment is nervous.
- Stablecoin Market Expansion: The stablecoin market capitalization has surpassed $300 billion, with USDT leading and USDC being the second largest. The host suggests this massive stablecoin liquidity pool is poised to flow into either Bitcoin or other high-cap coins once the current “crypto-winter” sentiment subsides.
- Meta-Planet Anomaly: A Japanese company, Meta-Planet, now has a book value lower than the value of the Bitcoin it holds on its balance sheet—a situation the host claims has never been seen before in the market.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Geopolitical Risk & Flight to Safety: Renewed US-China trade tensions (potential 100% tariffs by Trump) are driving investors toward traditional safe havens like Treasury bonds, the Euro, and the Swiss Franc, causing yields on major government bonds to drop.
- Fed Policy Expectations: Market sentiment suggests the Federal Reserve might stop reducing its balance sheet in the coming months, which the host notes would be “fantastic” for small-cap companies and liquidity.
- ETF Flows Show Net Selling: Despite BlackRock buying over $60 million in Bitcoin ETFs, the overall net flow for Bitcoin ETFs saw sales exceeding $326 million in the analyzed period. Ethereum ETFs experienced even heavier selling, with BlackRock selling over $310 million, leading to a total net negative flow above $428 million for ETH ETFs.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Donald Trump & Xi Jinping: Mentioned in the context of escalating trade war threats and the possibility of a meeting between the two leaders.
- BlackRock: Highlighted as a significant buyer of Bitcoin ETFs ($60M+) but also a major seller of Ethereum ETFs ($310M+).
- Zero Hedge: Cited for its observation that capital spending for the “new global environmental system” (AI) will eventually be financed by the US and Chinese governments, linking this to the value proposition of Bitcoin (energy-based vs. fiat).
- Meta-Planet: The Japanese company whose balance sheet anomaly (Bitcoin holdings > Book Value) is presented as a unique market event.
- PAMP (CMIP): A new, purely entertainment-focused “meme coin” on the Solana network, which the host intends to share details about daily in their bulletin.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
- US DOJ Seizure: The US Department of Justice executed the largest seizure in history in a fraud case, resulting in the acquisition of 127,271 Bitcoin. This seizure means the US government now holds approximately 325,283 BTC, valued around $37 billion.
6. Future Implications
The analysis suggests a dichotomy: while traditional markets react nervously to trade wars, the underlying crypto infrastructure (stablecoins) is maturing rapidly. The comparison of current Bitcoin price action to late 2024 suggests a potential move toward the $180,000 to $200,000 range if historical patterns hold. The host emphasizes that the internal metric analysis will provide actionable short-term guidance for navigating the current slow market environment.
7. Target Audience
This episode is highly valuable for Active Crypto Traders and Professional Market Analysts who require deep, technical on-chain data alongside macro context to inform short-term trading strategies.
Comprehensive Summary Narrative
The podcast episode begins by immediately addressing significant global macroeconomic headwinds, primarily the renewed trade tensions between the US and China following threats of massive tariffs by Donald Trump. This uncertainty has triggered a flight to safety, boosting demand for traditional assets like Treasury bonds, the Euro, and the Swiss Franc. Despite this, the host notes that recession probabilities in the US have drastically fallen according to some indicators (like Polymarket data cited by Zero Hedge).
The discussion pivots to the evolving narrative around Bitcoin and AI. A key point raised is the theory that capital spending for the “new global environmental system” (AI infrastructure) will be government-financed, making energy-backed assets like Bitcoin fundamentally superior to falsifiable fiat currency.
The core of the episode centers on unprecedented market observations. The host highlights the anomaly of the Japanese company Meta-Planet, whose Bitcoin holdings now exceed its entire book value. Furthermore, the massive growth of the stablecoin market ($300B+) is presented as a sign of latent capital waiting to deploy once market fear subsides.
Analyzing recent ETF data, the episode reveals significant net outflows from both Bitcoin ($326M net sell) and Ethereum ($428M net sell), despite BlackRock making selective purchases. This selling pressure is occurring while Bitcoin ho
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"The market of the stablecoin surpasses the rate of the $300,000 million... And this is a symptom that probably this money will end up going finally to crypto-winter, good luck, and will be Bitcoin, another will go to high capitalization coins."
"If you want to know why gold, silver, and Bitcoin are distributed, the evaluation is the option to finance the environmental system of artificial intelligence, and who comments this tweet and the most and says that is true. That is why Bitcoin is based on energy. It can be put into fake fiduciary currency, and all the government has done it, but it is impossible to falsify the energy, or else it can be added."
"A graphic that compared the end of 2024, from August to the end of the year, with the evolution of Biscoyne in this last month. In October, Biscoyne is doing a very, very similar movement to the one we saw in October of the previous exercise. If we see a similar movement, what you see here, Biscoyne could go to the area between $180,000 and $200,000."
"The Department of Justice in the United States has caused the biggest debt in all history in a theory of fraud. The Dow Jones has caused 127,271 Biscoyne. So I agree with this, and after his mother, this Biscoyne, which I just mentioned, the United States government would have in its balance 325,283 Biscoyne for a value of about $37,000 million."
"The Federal Reserve could stop reducing its balance in the next months. That would be fantastic for the small companies, small companies, capitalization, and also for the Alcouing Poguel speaks of strong growth of the North American economy."
"Yesterday we saw sales both on the ETFs of Bitcoin and on Ethereum. In the Bitcoin, we saw sales by more than $326 million... And the ETFs of the Ethereum account with sales, and here all the investors sold it. And in fact, the one that sold the most was BlackRock, which you see here on the screen, which sold more than $310 million."