The Chopping Block: Perps, Privacy & Prediction: Aster vs. Hyperliquid, Zcash Pops, Polymarket Soars, Galaxy One Debut - Ep. 921

Unknown Source October 11, 2025 62 min

artificial-intelligence investment startup ai-infrastructure google

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88 Companies

93 Key Quotes

4 Topics

1 Insights

🎯 Summary

Podcast Summary: The Chopping Block: Perps, Privacy & Prediction (Ep. 921)

This episode of The Chopping Block focuses heavily on the explosive growth of prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, and delves into the associated marketing dynamics, regulatory gray areas, and the broader philosophical debate around privacy in crypto.

1. Focus Area

The primary focus is Web3/DeFi, centered on the prediction market sector, highlighted by Polymarket’s massive new funding round. Secondary topics include the resurgence of privacy coins (Zcash), the debut of Galaxy One, and the ethics/effectiveness of Key Opinion Leader (KOL) marketing in crypto.

2. Key Technical Insights

• Prediction Market Utility: The discussion underscores that while prediction markets have been theoretically desired since the Ethereum whitepaper, Shane (Polymarket founder) succeeded where predecessors like Augur failed by achieving product-market fit through superior UX, better on-ramps (leveraging Polygon), and sheer founder tenacity.
• Market Efficiency vs. Manipulation: The conversation explores the concept of “futarchy,” where prediction markets aggregate superior information, potentially even influencing real-world outcomes (like Fed decisions or elections). However, the hosts argue that markets dealing with objective, verifiable outcomes (like a government shutdown end date) are less susceptible to manipulation than those where trading itself could influence the result (e.g., a “bounty” market for a specific tweet).
• Privacy Coin Resurgence: There is a brief acknowledgment of a shift in sentiment, moving away from the previous dismissal of privacy coins in favor of meme coins, suggesting a renewed appreciation for Zcash and similar technologies.

3. Market/Investment Angle

• Polymarket Valuation Surge: Polymarket raised $2 billion at a $9 billion valuation, led by ICE (parent company of the NYSE), marking one of the fastest valuation increases in crypto history. This signals massive institutional validation for the prediction market category.
• Founder Story as Investment Thesis: The hosts detail their long history with Polymarket founder Shane, emphasizing that his grit and tenacity, despite early unpolished pitches and near bankruptcy, were key factors in their decision to invest heavily, eventually becoming major cap table holders.
• Token Speculation: There is significant buzz around a potential Polymarket token ($POLY), especially given the strategic investment by ICE, though the structure and regulatory implications of such a token remain unclear, particularly regarding US market re-entry.

4. Notable Companies/People

• Polymarket: The central company, achieving unicorn status rapidly.
• Shane (Polymarket Founder): Highlighted as the youngest self-made billionaire in crypto (age 27), lauded for his determination in making prediction markets viable.
• ICE (Intercontinental Exchange): The parent company of the NYSE, leading the latest funding round, signaling major traditional finance integration.
• Kalchi: Polymarket’s main competitor, currently engaged in a “KOL War” by aggressively hiring influencers, particularly for sports betting markets.
• Tom, Robert, Taroon: The hosts of The Chopping Block, providing insider perspectives on investment history and market dynamics.

5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion

• CFTC Settlement: Polymarket previously settled with the CFTC in 2022, paying a fine and exiting the US market. Their current trajectory, in concert with ICE, suggests a planned re-entry into the regulated US market.
• Insider Trading vs. Futarchy: The discussion contrasts traditional SEC views on insider trading (theft of gain) with the utility of prediction markets in high-stakes events (like government shutdowns). The hosts argue that for objective events, insider knowledge pricing into the market is beneficial (futarchy), as no one is “owed” the information.
• KOL Disclosure: The debate on KOL marketing centers on disclosure. While shilling financial assets (tokens) is deemed “dicey,” promoting a product or platform (like Polymarket or Kalchi) with clear disclosure is viewed as standard, if slightly tarnished, 21st-century advertising.

6. Future Implications

The conversation suggests a future where prediction markets become a mainstream, regulated financial utility, potentially integrated with traditional finance infrastructure via ICE. Furthermore, the intensity of the KOL marketing wars indicates that user acquisition in this sector is becoming highly competitive, forcing platforms to spend heavily on influencer networks.

7. Target Audience

This episode is most valuable for Crypto/DeFi Investors, Venture Capitalists, Founders, and Crypto Policy Analysts who need high-level, nuanced insights into market trends, major funding events, and the intersection of regulation and decentralized applications.

🏢 Companies Mentioned

Mert ✅ N/A (Influencer/KOL)

Naval ✅ N/A (Influencer/KOL)

StarkNet ✅ Layer 1 blockchain projects

Railgun ✅ Layer 1 blockchain projects / DeFi

Robinhood ✅ Exchange/Brokerage (Traditional/Web3 adjacent)

FanDuel ✅ Institution (Traditional/Sports Betting)

DraftKings ✅ Institution (Traditional/Sports Betting)

CME ✅ Institution (Financial/Derivatives)

Base ✅ Layer 2/Ecosystem

ATOM ✅ Cryptocurrency

James Win ✅ unknown

Is Binance ✅ unknown

Is Aster ✅ unknown

So Aster ✅ unknown

DeFi Mama ✅ unknown

💬 Key Insights

"I would argue the Mert effect of this is probably more important almost than the Naval effect because all the all the kind of new Solana users from 2022, like we didn't, don't, didn't know it's Zcash, and I think his advocacy probably brought it to the attention of the gambling part of the world more so."

Impact Score: 10

"I must be true because like I've always believed fundamentally that Cypherpunk is not money. Like it's just if you're targeting Cypherpunk, it's like they're not going to be able to make the coin move. They're not going to buy this thing in size because they just don't have money. They have a lot of anger, but they're not the ones that are setting prices at the margin."

Impact Score: 10

"So I think the interesting thing about this is that this rally is about both the high brow and the low brow. You know, it's like the XRP rotators selling their XRP to to buy Zcash, and then the KOL-led, you know, Naval and Mert-led KOL storm. So I think it's like kind of the barbell."

Impact Score: 10

"it wasn't that long ago that we were all talking about Roman Storm and the Tornado Cash case. So privacy, like if anything, it does feel like a very delayed reaction to a lot of the anger and frustration and the backlash that that, you know, we were we were really seeing in the community just, you know, three, four months ago when the Tornado Cash case was was ongoing."

Impact Score: 10

"Bitcoin is insurance against fiat. Zcash is insurance against Bitcoin."

Impact Score: 10

"Which doesn't make it like Binance the exchange, not be in BNB Chain, Binance the exchange. Its volumes and Aster's reported volumes seem to be almost one for one, which nobody really understands what that could possibly mean."

Impact Score: 10

📊 Topics

#artificialintelligence 85 #investment 14 #startup 10 #aiinfrastructure 1

🧠 Key Takeaways

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