Algo grande se cuece en BlackRock… y el resto del mercado sigue dormido
🎯 Summary
Podcast Summary: Algo grande se cuece en BlackRock… y el resto del mercado sigue dormido
This 17-minute episode focuses on the significant accumulation activity by institutional players, particularly BlackRock, in the Bitcoin market, contrasting it with the relative apathy or correction experienced by retail investors and the broader crypto market. It also touches upon macroeconomic signals and projections for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.
1. Focus Area
The primary focus is on Bitcoin (BTC) price action, institutional accumulation (specifically via ETFs), and comparative analysis against traditional assets (Gold, S&P 500), framed within the context of macroeconomic stability (Federal Reserve commentary).
2. Key Technical Insights
- Glassnode Model Support: Bitcoin’s spot price has recently touched the upper band of the Glassnode model based on the short-term holder cost basis, suggesting a potential consolidation area before any further significant upward movement in the coming years (2025/2026).
- Comparative Cycle Analysis: A comparison between the 2020-2021 BTC cycle and the current 2024-2025 cycle suggests a potential peak price target of $265,000 for the current year based on historical pattern alignment.
- Altcoin Market Structure: The Total 3 market capitalization (Altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) is forming a “cup and handle” pattern, suggesting a potential major breakout if resistance is overcome, which would be necessary to support the higher total crypto market cap projections.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Institutional Accumulation Disconnect: There is a stark divergence: while the Fear & Greed Index is neutral and retail interest (transactions under $1,000) is decreasing, ETFs (led by BlackRock) are accumulating aggressively, suggesting institutions possess privileged information or a long-term conviction the market is underpricing.
- BlackRock’s Dominance: BlackRock recorded $426 million in net inflows on a specific day, accumulating $2.3 billion that week, potentially marking its best week since the spot BTC ETFs launched.
- Long-Term Price Projections: Two main projections were presented: one suggesting $265,000 by the end of the year (based on 2020/21 comparison) and a more aggressive one, aligning with the “Libermore accumulation pattern” cited by BlackRock’s activities, projecting $500,000 by mid-2026.
4. Notable Companies/People
- BlackRock: Highlighted as the leading accumulator via spot BTC ETFs, signaling strong institutional conviction.
- Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve Chair): Mentioned for his recent, brief appearance at the Community Bankers Conference, where he focused only on community banking support and stability, offering no commentary on interest rates or future monetary policy.
- Orange BTC (Brazil), RemitPoint (Japan), B-Hold (UK): Mentioned as examples of hundreds of companies globally continuing to accumulate BTC on their balance sheets, separate from the ETF flows.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
The discussion briefly covered Jerome Powell’s recent Fed appearance, noting his focus on adapting supervision for community banks to reduce unnecessary burdens without compromising stability. Crucially, the speaker emphasized that Powell provided no forward guidance on interest rates, leaving the market guessing despite underlying volatility.
6. Future Implications
The conversation strongly implies that the market is entering a phase where institutional capital dictates the price floor and future trajectory, potentially leading to a significant price discovery phase that will eventually force mainstream awareness. The divergence between institutional buying and retail apathy suggests the current price consolidation ($120k) is temporary before the next major leg up, potentially toward $265k this year or $500k by 2026. The speaker also suggests that Bitcoin needs to reach $200,000 or more to truly capture the attention of the general public, similar to how gold’s $27 trillion market cap is largely ignored by the masses.
7. Target Audience
Crypto and traditional finance professionals, institutional investors, and sophisticated retail traders who track on-chain data, institutional flows, and macroeconomic indicators impacting digital assets.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"Se avecina una ruptura que ocurre una vez en cada generación. La comparativa es la evolución de Bitcoin desde final del 2020 hasta ahora. Cuando veamos esta ruptura, es más que probable que los próximos meses se necesiten unas cuantas onzas de oro más para adquirir, para comprar un Bitcoin."
"Este es el patrón de acumulación que tiene unos 100 años. Aquí tenéis el patrón teórico de Libermore: acumulación de Libermore. Esto, de acuerdo a esto, quedarían todavía unos cuantos meses de subida como hasta junio, julio del 2026, y veis que este modelo, de acuerdo a esta proyección, podría llevar el precio de Bitcoin a mediados del 2026 a la zona de los $500,000."
"mientras que el minorista pierde interés en el mercado en comprar Bitcoin, los grandes no dejan y no dejan de acumular, y en particular la mayor gestora de activos del mundo."
"En este momento, todo el Top 30 corrigiendo, incluso BNB, que algunos otros preguntaban en los comentarios, por BNB sigue muy cerca de su máximo histórico, está cotizando en $1,244, pero corrige un 4.97% en el día de hoy."
"la total capitalización del mercado de las altcoins, quitando de este análisis a Bitcoin y a Ethereum, es lo que se conoce como el Total 3. Pues bien, veis como está formando un patrón de taza con asa, podríamos ver una ruptura por encima de esta línea que se ha convertido en una resistencia y el inicio de un gran movimiento al alza."
"el interés a nivel mundial por Bitcoin pues está muy, muy lejos, leguísimos de los máximos que vimos aquí a final del 2020, comienzo del 2021, muy, muy lejos, en torno a un valor 26 o 27."