Why This Could Be the Biggest Bull Run Since the 1950s w/ Mel Mattison

Unknown Source October 07, 2025 48 min

artificial-intelligence investment

🎧 Listen to Original

86 Companies

63 Key Quotes

2 Topics

1 Insights

🎯 Summary

Comprehensive Summary: Milk Road Macro Episode with Mel Madison (October 6th)

This episode of Milk Road Macro features host John Gillen interviewing macro analyst Mel Madison, a former FinTech executive with deep historical market knowledge, to discuss the current market environment, historical parallels, and potential Q4 catalysts.

1. Main Narrative Arc and Key Discussion Points

The central narrative revolves around Madison’s conviction that the current market rally, dubbed an “everything everywhere all at once” rally (involving bonds, stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and real estate), is the precursor to an “epic bull run” reminiscent of the 1950s, rather than just the 1990s. Madison argues that contemporary investors, even the oldest ones, lack the living memory of these powerful, multi-decade growth periods, leading to skepticism about current market dynamics. The discussion pivots from historical market structure to the critical role of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and the potential re-emergence of Yield Curve Control (YCC), framed within a new geopolitical structure echoing the 1950s Cold War alignments.

2. Major Topics, Themes, and Subject Areas Covered

Market Outlook: Prediction of a short-lived 15-20% correction followed by an epic bull run.
Historical Analogies: Strong emphasis on the 1950s as the best parallel for current market performance (S&P average returns >19%), surpassing the 1990s.
AI and Sector Rotation: Discussion on the concentration of the current rally (e.g., Mag Seven) and the potential shift away from the dominance of Software as a Service (SaaS) due to the fundamental devaluation of coding brought by AI.
Technological Disruption: Mention of tokenization of equities and its disruptive potential.
Federal Reserve Mandates: Deep dive into the original three mandates of the Fed (vs. the commonly cited two).
Geopolitics and Macro Cycles: Drawing parallels between current global tensions (Russia/China vs. West/Japan) and the post-WWII/Korean War era (1950s).
Emerging Markets: Strong bullish stance on Emerging Markets (EM), specifically citing Brazil (EWZ) due to its strategic importance and resource wealth.

3. Technical Concepts, Methodologies, or Frameworks Discussed

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Rally: A term describing broad asset class appreciation.
Paradigm Shifts: Fundamental breakdowns in historical correlations (e.g., Gold/Dollar, Unemployment/GDP), driven by interest rate cycles.
The Debatement Trade: A concept Madison has discussed for years, now gaining mainstream traction (e.g., at Goldman Sachs/Morgan Stanley).
Yield Curve Control (YCC): Explicitly mentioned as a historical tool used in the 1950s, potentially relevant again to maintain “moderate long-term interest rates.”
Humphrey Hawkins Act (1970s): Referenced as the source of the modern dual mandate, though Madison highlights the original three mandates.

4. Business Implications and Strategic Insights

Index Fund Skepticism: Madison suggests that the current acceptance of index funds may hurt investors as the market broadens beyond the concentrated winners (Mag Seven).
Active Management Opportunity: Madison boasts significant outperformance (>100% YTD on his portfolio), arguing that beating the market is achievable outside of massive capital constraints.
AI Impact on Tech Valuation: The transformative nature of AI may lead to a rotation away from pure SaaS models toward broader industrial/transformative plays, similar to the railroad boom.

5. Key Personalities, Experts, or Thought Leaders Mentioned

Mel Madison: The featured expert, former FinTech executive, and long-term market predictor.
John Gillen: Host of Milk Road Macro.
Jordi Visser: Previous guest who discussed AI concentration.
Warren Pies, Luke Gromin, Larry the Part: Mentioned as part of the cohort discussing the “debatement trade” years ago.
Jim Bianco: Mentioned regarding commentary on the labor market and Fed mandates.
Warren Buffett: Used as a benchmark for long-term market experience, noting even he may not have seen the current market structure.
Jeffrey Gundlach: Mentioned in the context of investors lacking memory of the 1950s returns.
Nick Timiraos / Miran: Mentioned in connection with bringing up the third Fed mandate.
F.D. Griffin / G. Edward Griffin (Creature from Jekyll Island): Referenced in the historical context of the Fed’s creation.

6. Predictions, Trends, or Future-Looking Statements

The current rally is leading into a multi-decade bull run comparable to the 1950s.
AI will cause a fundamental shift, potentially devaluing some current SaaS monopolies.
Geopolitical fault lines are redrawing along 1950s lines (US/West/Japan vs. Russia/China).
The “End of the Fed” movement, currently fringe, may gain mainstream traction as the Fed’s role is scrutinized.

7. Practical Applications and Real-World Examples

Investment Trades: Madison cited his successful calls, including buying EM calls for 40 cents and his early conviction in **

🏢 Companies Mentioned

Lou Gromin ✅ media/commentary

China ✅ government/economy

Qs ✅ finance

City Group ✅ finance

Nick Timiraos ✅ Media/Finance

Western Europe ✅ unknown

The Cold War ✅ unknown

Prime Minister ✅ unknown

Marshall Plan ✅ unknown

Joseph Stalin ✅ unknown

Soviet Union ✅ unknown

Supreme Court ✅ unknown

City Group ✅ unknown

JP Morgan ✅ unknown

Jekyll Island ✅ unknown

💬 Key Insights

"What's happening... is it's the recognition that this fiat system, the way it's currently structured, has fundamental flaws. And this is Triffin's dilemma."

Impact Score: 10

"What you have to look at is, where does the government create and spend money that then competes with the private sector in such a way that that competition is going to drive up prices? And if you have that scenario, you're going to get inflation. Otherwise, how much money the government creates is relatively irrelevant."

Impact Score: 10

"The reason we had inflation post-COVID was not because of the debt that was printed, because it was because what we were doing in COVID was we were literally sending checks to every American. And then in a supply chain constrained environment, we were telling them to buy."

Impact Score: 10

"What's important is the growth of the money supply. Part of the growth of the money supply is V, velocity. Velocity is extremely small. And what that means is that even though dollars are being created, they're not circulating through the system at a very high level because there's not a huge level of credit issuance."

Impact Score: 10

"I don't think they understand that the US debt is not a problem at all. It's an easily manageable situation, easily manageable."

Impact Score: 10

"The key to managing this massive debt load, and this is the failure of imagination of people like Elon Musk. And this is what I think people need to really step back from their areas of expertise and where a little bit of knowledge can hurt a lot."

Impact Score: 10

📊 Topics

#artificialintelligence 60 #investment 4

🧠 Key Takeaways

💡 be able to do this in the 2020s