Bitcoin Soars, Japanese Bonds Buckle | Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays: October 6, 2025

Unknown Source October 06, 2025 34 min

artificial-intelligence investment ai-infrastructure

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25 Companies

29 Key Quotes

3 Topics

1 Insights

🎯 Summary

Comprehensive Summary of Macro Monday’s Episode: Labor Shifts, Global Policy Alignment, and Copper Supercycles

This episode of Macro Monday’s, hosted by Miguel Osmo and featuring Andreas, provided a deep dive into current macroeconomic trends, focusing heavily on the evolving US labor market, global policy shifts, and investment implications in technology and commodities.

1. Main Narrative Arc and Key Discussion Points

The discussion began with a review of recent positive market performance, specifically highlighting a 75% portfolio return driven by successful thematic bets in drone technology, AI, and trades positioned around weak labor market reports. The central narrative quickly shifted to the “humiliation of economists” who have struggled to keep pace with macro shifts, particularly those influenced by political actions (e.g., the Trump administration, European Commission).

The core of the episode centered on analyzing the shrinking US labor force due to migration policy changes and enforcement actions (like the ICE anecdote), arguing that this fundamentally alters the required job creation rate. This led to a discussion on the Federal Reserve’s reaction function, the automation supercycle, and finally, a global macro alignment, exemplified by shifts in Japanese fiscal policy.

2. Major Topics, Themes, and Subject Areas Covered

US Labor Market Dynamics: Negative private payroll prints (ADP), the impact of reduced labor supply (migration reversal), and the resulting low threshold for stable unemployment (under 25k jobs/month needed).
Monetary Policy & Fed Reaction: The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates (“better safe than sorry”) despite market strength, reacting to perceived labor market weakness, though the hosts note this reaction might be “distorted” as rate cuts currently fuel data center investment rather than broad job creation.
Investment Thematics: Strong performance in drone technology and AI-related sectors.
Bitcoin Cycle Speculation: Reviewing three “hot takes” on Bitcoin’s cycle timing, including a highly specific, mathematically derived prediction for an all-time high in October 2025.
Government Adoption of Bitcoin: Discussing the low current official government ownership (<2.5%) and whether true Western governmental adoption is still a long-term cycle play, contrasting it with current aggressive gold buying by the Global South.
Japanese Macro Shift: Analysis of the likely new Prime Minister favoring fiscal dominance and the positive implications of the Bank of Japan stepping back from yield curve control (YCC).
Inflation and Tariffs: Analysis of the Real Vision regime model showing falling inflation expectations, attributed to the front-loading of inventory (e.g., copper) ahead of tariff implementation, suggesting tariff impacts will be massaged slowly into 2026.
Commodity Supercycle (Copper): Linking rising copper demand directly to the global build-out of the electrical grid driven by EVs and Solar/AI infrastructure.

3. Technical Concepts, Methodologies, or Frameworks Discussed

Real Vision Regime Model: A proprietary model calculating the probability of rising Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity (GIL), which signaled a drop in inflation expectations.
Fiscal Dominance: A policy environment where fiscal spending dictates monetary policy, noted as a global trend aligning with the expected shift in Japan.
Yield Curve Functionality: The importance of allowing the yield curve to steepen naturally (private market credit creation) versus central bank intervention (like the BoJ’s past YCC).
Inventory Cycle Analysis: Using copper warehouse data as a proxy to explain why tariff-induced inflation spikes are being delayed or smoothed out.

4. Business Implications and Strategic Insights

Automation Imperative: Shrinking labor supply forces companies to accelerate automation and CapEx cycles beyond just AI data centers.
Global Policy Uniformity: The current macro environment is characterized by a uniform global direction of travel toward active fiscal budgets and weakening central bank control, suggesting broad regional returns are possible (similar to 2005-2007).
Investment Thesis on Copper: The shift in Chinese industrial production away from construction toward EVs and grid expansion (Solar/AI) is a fundamental, long-term supertrend supporting copper demand.

5. Key Personalities and Thought Leaders Mentioned

Jamsi (X User): Credited with the cyclical calculation predicting an October 2025 BTC top.
Jonah (X User): Cited for the argument that retail investors won’t get rich from small dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin at current prices, suggesting the next major tailwind must come from sovereign/governmental adoption.
Justin (X User): Cited for the psychological point regarding unrealistic return expectations for Bitcoin ($1,000 investment yielding massive returns).
Takahichi (Japan): The likely new Japanese Prime Minister whose rhetoric suggests a move toward fiscal dominance.

6. Predictions, Trends, or Future-Looking Statements

The US labor market will experience volatility below zero payroll prints monthly due to the shrinking labor pool, and this should be normalized.
The Fed will continue cutting rates into this environment.
The global trend toward fiscal dominance and central bank weakening is pervasive across Asia, Europe, and the US.
The copper/grid/AI infrastructure build-out is one of the most fundamental supertrends right now and will inevitably come to the US and Europe.

7. Practical Applications and Real-World Examples

Portfolio Positioning: The hosts confirmed they implemented trades based on the copper inventory anomaly and the

🏢 Companies Mentioned

But Germans ✅ unknown

Range Rover ✅ unknown

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💬 Key Insights

"And we have a couple of states with a 40% data center usage of the entire electricity consumption on a daily basis."

Impact Score: 10

"right now, the bottleneck, it's not GPUs, as we've talked about for several years, it's electricity."

Impact Score: 10

"I saw a state-by-state statistics on the data center usage of the total electricity consumption state by state in the US. And we have a couple of states with a 40% data center [usage]."

Impact Score: 10

"It's one of the most fundamental super trends right now... for AI, the bottleneck, it's not GPUs, as we've talked about for several years, it's electricity."

Impact Score: 10

"Solar is the big addition to this from say 2023 late and onwards. And that's obviously an AI exercise. Nothing more and nothing less. It's all AI."

Impact Score: 10

"A central bank creating money will just channel the money in one direction, basically, while a private commercial banking system... will send money in... the directions that matter."

Impact Score: 10

📊 Topics

#artificialintelligence 33 #investment 4 #aiinfrastructure 1