Los datos recién publicados que hacen la matemática de BITCOIN insostenible
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: Los datos recién publicados que hacen la matemática de BITCOIN insostenible
This podcast episode focuses heavily on recent on-chain data and institutional investment flows that suggest the current supply/demand dynamics for Bitcoin are mathematically unsustainable, leading to significant price implications.
1. Focus Area
The primary focus is Cryptocurrency Market Analysis, specifically centered on Bitcoin (BTC), the impact of US Spot ETFs, institutional accumulation patterns (especially BlackRock), and the resulting supply shock relative to the halving dynamics. Secondary topics include brief mentions of Ethereum, Solana, and other altcoin movements.
2. Key Technical Insights
- Supply Shock Mathematics: The combined weekly accumulation by major institutional actors (BlackRock, Fidelity, MicroStrategy, etc.) is approximately five times greater than the total amount of Bitcoin being eliminated globally (via mining rewards reduction/supply shock). This imbalance is deemed mathematically unsustainable without a significant price adjustment.
- Exchange Withdrawal Trend: The amount of Bitcoin held on cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to levels not seen since July 2019 (when BTC was trading below $7,000). This indicates that accumulated coins are being moved to cold storage, reinforcing the belief that buyers (institutions) are holding for long-term price appreciation rather than short-term trading.
- Historical Price Context: Bitcoin recently recorded its second most expensive daily close in history, nearing the $122,300 mark, positioning it near all-time high territory during the analysis.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Institutional Dominance: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is the overwhelming leader, accumulating 783,792 BTC, representing over 50% of the total 1.34 million BTC held across all US spot ETFs since their launch.
- JPMorgan 2025 Prediction: JPMorgan analysts project a potential BTC price target of $165,000 by the end of 2025, basing this on two pillars: continued inflows via Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing valuation of Bitcoin relative to gold.
- Sentiment Disconnect: Despite periods of “fear” or “neutral” sentiment indices, institutional accumulation remains robust, suggesting a fundamental decoupling between retail sentiment and institutional conviction.
4. Notable Companies/People
- BlackRock (Larry Fink/iShares): Highlighted as the primary driver of institutional demand, accumulating nearly $1 billion in a single day and over $1.82 billion in one week alone.
- JPMorgan: Mentioned for their specific price prediction for the end of 2025.
- MicroStrategy & MetaPlanet: Cited as examples of corporate balance sheet accumulators alongside the ETFs.
- Host (Juan Luis): Promotes a deeper, exclusive analysis of a complex on-chain metric regarding Bitcoin’s “real cost” to be shared later in a private bulletin.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
The episode briefly notes that the market is anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (currently priced at 25 basis points), which could serve as an additional tailwind for crypto markets alongside ETF inflows. The discussion also notes that several top-30 altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) are seeing ETF applications, such as Aptos (APT).
6. Future Implications
The conversation strongly implies that the current rate of institutional accumulation against a fixed, shrinking supply (post-halving) makes a significant upward price adjustment inevitable unless the rate of institutional buying slows dramatically. The market is entering a phase where supply constraints are being severely tested by unprecedented demand from regulated financial products.
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for Crypto Professionals, Institutional Investors, and Advanced Retail Traders who rely on on-chain data, institutional flow analysis, and macroeconomic context to inform their investment strategies.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"This mathematics is literally unsustainable, and only can be adjusted via price."
"That's why I'm talking about the unsustainable mathematical matter, because we could add the rest of the ETFs that continue to buy, and of course we could incorporate the list of the 100 main companies, but it is not necessary to include much more. Only these actors are accumulating almost five times what is happening at the world level."
"Well, if we take only to 2,468,10 companies, including MetaPlanet, and one of the assets gestures, all these actors accumulate, approximately 1,355,000 Bitcoin in the week of April 21st, approx 1,4,5,4,5, the Bitcoin that has been eliminated."
"As you can see, most of this Bitcoin, a very significant percentage of more than 50% are in power of BlackRock, which accumulates 783,792 Bitcoin of the more than 1,340,000 that I just mentioned."
"If you look in a week in which we even have seen fear values in the index of fear and the value of Bitcoin, you have to take note of this because while there is a fear or neutral sentiment, although we have seen that the last two days have turned towards our extreme value, but if it is a value, in the middle of that movement of calm and calm, you are seeing how the institutional accumulates."
"What price do they say that could reach Bitcoin at the end of this year, 2025? $165,000."