Raoul Pal: The 2025 Crypto Bull Run Is CANCELED (i'm sorry)
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: Raoul Pal: The 2025 Crypto Bull Run Is CANCELED (i’m sorry)
This episode centers on a significant recalibration of the expected timeline for the next major crypto bull run, driven by macroeconomic analysis from global investor Raoul Pal, alongside specific insights into emerging altcoin sectors like AI and agentic commerce.
1. Focus Area
The primary focus is Macroeconomic Drivers of the Crypto Cycle, specifically linking Bitcoin’s performance to the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Purchasing Managers Index, which serves as a proxy for the global business cycle. Secondary focus areas include AI/Decentralized Compute (BitTensor) and Agentic Commerce/Payment Infrastructure (Sweet).
2. Key Technical Insights
- Business Cycle Dominance: Bitcoin’s price action is fundamentally tied to the business cycle (ISM), not just the four-year halving schedule. The current market weakness reflects the economy remaining in a contractionary phase (ISM below 50).
- Debt Maturity Extension: The primary reason for the cycle shift is the extension of debt maturity from four years to five years in 2021-2022, which has elongated the expected crypto cycle.
- Agentic Commerce Infrastructure: The Sweet protocol is highlighted for its unique ability to handle batch transfers automatically and instantly, positioning it for the future where AI agents facilitate the majority of online transactions (agentic commerce).
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Bull Run Timeline Shift: Raoul Pal suggests the traditional four-year cycle is now a five-year cycle. Consequently, the peak of the next cycle is projected to be delayed until 2026, likely Q2.
- Buying Opportunity: Dips while the ISM remains below 50 (indicating economic contraction) are framed as historically proven buying opportunities, mirroring patterns seen in 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.
- Altcoin Focus (BitTensor): Significant investment interest is noted in BitTensor (TAU) and its subnets (e.g., Subnet 64 for serving AI models cheaply, Subnet 11 for consumer apps), suggesting decentralized AI infrastructure is a key area building through the current market phase.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Raoul Pal: The central figure providing the macroeconomic framework, arguing for the five-year cycle based on debt maturity influencing the ISM.
- Justin (Altcoin Daily Host): Highlighting the launch of Stillcore Capital, a new fund focused on BitTensor (TAU).
- BitTensor Subnets: Specific mention of Subnet 64 (Shoots), Subnet 11 (Dippy), and Subnet 33 (Ready AI), emphasizing real-world utility and high-profile backing (ex-Meta/Google talent).
- Sweet: Discussed for its partnership with Google on the AP2 agentic payment framework and its focus on incentivizing content creators in the agentic future.
- Alex (SwissBorg): Mentioned for the aggressive BORG token buyback program, utilizing 50% of trading fees, projecting significant buy pressure.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
No direct regulatory discussions were detailed, but the underlying theme of monetary policy (interest rates) driving the business cycle is central to Pal’s analysis, implying that the timing of rate cuts is crucial for economic expansion and, subsequently, crypto market breakout.
6. Future Implications
The industry is heading toward a period where macroeconomic forces dictate the timing of major rallies, pushing the expected peak further out to 2026. Simultaneously, significant development is occurring in specialized sectors: AI infrastructure (BitTensor) and the foundational layer for AI-driven transactions (Agentic Commerce via Sweet).
7. Target Audience
This episode is highly valuable for Professional Crypto Investors, Macro Analysts, and Institutional Strategists who rely on cyclical analysis, macroeconomic indicators (ISM, rates), and deep dives into emerging infrastructure narratives (AI/Agentic Tech).
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"Their subnet 64, Shoots, serves popular AI models, DeepSeek, Mistral, et cetera, for one-sixth the cost of AWS."
"In 2021-22, they actually extended the maturity of the debt from four years to five years. So that extension of the maturity of debt has pushed out the business cycle year. The four-year cycle, this time around, is a five-year cycle."
"Bitcoin is basically, this is a detrended Bitcoin, and it's basically the ISM, which is the business cycle. Remember, we've always said it's the business cycle, stupid. It's always the business cycle, stupid."
"We recently announced our partnership with Google on AP2, which is an agentic payment framework."
"Sweet is best equipped to dominate agentic commerce, meaning AI agents in the future of AI."
"Justin, All-In Podcast host, which is a huge podcast, Jason has launched Stillcore Capital, a new BitTensor fund. BitTensor is an AI blue-chip altcoin."