Q4 2025 Could Mark the Start of Bitcoin and Crypto’s Biggest Bull Run w/ Kevin Kelly & Jesse Eckel
🎯 Summary
Podcast Summary: Q4 2025 Could Mark the Start of Bitcoin and Crypto’s Biggest Bull Run w/ Kevin Kelly & Jesse Eckel
This episode of The Milk Road Show, featuring Kevin Kelly (Delphi Digital) and Jesse Eckel (Oak Pax Ventures), centers on a highly bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, projecting that the next major bull run could extend well into 2026, driven primarily by global liquidity dynamics and institutional adoption.
1. Focus Area
The discussion is heavily focused on Crypto Markets and Macroeconomics, specifically analyzing how global liquidity, central bank policies (especially the PBOC), fiscal deficits, and institutional adoption frameworks (like ETFs) are setting up a potentially massive bull cycle for Bitcoin, moving beyond traditional four-year halving cycle expectations.
2. Key Technical Insights
- Global Liquidity as the Primary Driver: The core thesis is that Bitcoin is now firmly established as a macro asset, and its price action is dictated more by global liquidity conditions than purely crypto-specific events.
- Refinancing Machine: The global financial system is increasingly functioning as a “refinancing machine” due to rising government fiscal deficits, necessitating continuous liquidity injections to sustain debt levels.
- Bitcoin as the Ultimate Debasement Hedge: Bitcoin’s value proposition is framed as the purest hedge against this ongoing, broad-based currency debasement, a trend evidenced by the strength of gold relative to fiat currencies.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Bullish Q4 Setup: Conditions are aligning for a “stellar Q4,” despite potential short-term volatility or “bear traps” that could shake out weak hands before year-end.
- Extended Cycle Projection: Both guests lean toward a cycle top extending beyond the commonly predicted 2025 timeframe, with projections ranging from Q2 2026 to potentially Q3/Q4 2026, driven by delayed liquidity peaks.
- Room for Re-risking: Current institutional positioning suggests significant room for investors to increase risk exposure before reaching the consensus levels seen in previous cycles.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Kevin Kelly (Delphi Digital): Emphasized the macro linkage (“Crypto is macro and macro is crypto”) and the importance of tracking global liquidity.
- Jesse Eckel (Oak Pax Ventures): Argued strongly against an early 2026 peak, citing expected post-May 2025 rate cuts (potentially driven by political incentives) and the slow rollout of institutional on-ramps.
- Michael Howell (Cross-Worker Capital): Referenced as a key figure defining the current financial system as a “refinancing machine.”
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
- Institutional On-Ramps: The slow rollout of new institutional products, including ETFs and potential regulatory changes like the “Clarity Act” (mentioned in the context of 2026), is viewed as a structural, long-term bid supporting prices.
- Political Influence on Rates: Jesse Eckel suggested that political factors (e.g., the desire to keep the economy “hot” leading into midterms/elections) could lead to more aggressive rate cuts after May 2025 than currently priced in, further boosting liquidity.
6. Future Implications
The conversation suggests the industry is heading toward a period where macro awareness is non-negotiable for crypto investors. The next bull run will be characterized by sustained, long-term structural demand fueled by institutional capital flowing into compliant vehicles, rather than purely retail speculation seen in 2021. The cycle is expected to be longer and potentially higher due to these structural shifts, provided a severe recession is avoided.
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for Crypto Investors, Hedge Fund Managers, and Macro Strategists who are looking to align their portfolio positioning with long-term liquidity cycles and institutional adoption trends rather than short-term technical patterns.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"Nvidia again, arguably one of the most systemically important companies at this point to the US economy and to financial markets that we've seen in a really long time, maybe ever."
"This US versus China AI race is so structurally important at this point. And it really is. It's a matter of national security."
"imagine you were running the US government. This is a race you cannot afford to lose. Like and not only that, but like if you think about exactly how Trump investment thing, they want to run the economy hot, they want to grow their way out of the debt. The only way they're going to do that is AI and robotics, like just straight."
"The problem now is, or the potential problem is, when you look at the expected expenditure and CapEx that's needed to build out the infrastructure that everyone's forecasting over the next four to five years, you're talking about an $800 billion to maybe a trillion-dollar funding gap that these companies simply, given the revenues and the cash flows they are generating, will not be able to finance."
"it's a bit of a race between some of these big AI companies... getting to a point where they're able to actually manifest that future growth and future profitability... versus the race of how long will investor appetite still be there to continue to fund these mega burn rates?"
"I really think like the direction of liquidity can point its way over to crypto, right? You know, whatever Nvidia is still bigger than the entire market cap of crypto, so we don't need that much liquidity for us to go up, right?"