Is Bitcoin Ready To Explode In Q4? | Anthony & John Pompliano
🎯 Summary
[{“key_takeaways”=>[“Gold has significantly outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date (up 42% in 2024), but historically, gold runs first, often followed by Bitcoin about 100 days later, suggesting Bitcoin could still outperform by year-end.”, “Central bank buying is a major driver for gold’s current performance, while institutional adoption (like BlackRock’s profitable Bitcoin ETF) is driving Bitcoin’s long-term structural advantage.”, “The traditional four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is now in question due to the introduction of ETFs, making it the most crucial investment question for the industry right now.”, “For long-term investors, time in the market is more important than timing the market; holding Bitcoin through volatility is often the most profitable strategy, rendering the cycle question less critical for committed holders.”, “The Strive/Similarweb M&A deal illustrates how Bitcoin Treasury companies trading at high premiums to NAV (like Strive at 3.5x) can use their overvalued stock to acquire other companies (like Similarweb trading near 1x NAV) in creative, value-accretive ways.”, “The financial landscape is rapidly merging: exchanges are adding stocks/crypto, and custodians are becoming chartered banks, indicating Bitcoin is becoming an assumed, integrated part of finance rather than a separate niche.”, “Premiums for Bitcoin treasury stocks are fundamentally driven by the market’s belief in the company’s ability to creatively accumulate more Bitcoin (growing Bitcoin per share), similar to how growth stocks trade at high revenue multiples.”], “overview”=>”Anthony and John Pompliano analyze the current market dynamics between Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that gold’s recent surge often precedes a significant run-up in Bitcoin. They delve into the implications of institutional adoption, particularly how major players like BlackRock are effectively becoming ‘Bitcoin companies’ through their profitable ETF products, signaling a fundamental blending of traditional and digital finance. A major focus is placed on the uncertainty surrounding the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle in the post-ETF era, which investors must consider when forming investment strategies.”, “themes”=>[“Bitcoin vs. Gold Comparative Performance”, “Institutionalization and Mainstreaming of Bitcoin (ETFs and Corporate Adoption)”, “The Future of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle”, “Investment Strategy and Time Horizon”, “Bitcoin Treasury Company M&A and NAV Premiums”, “The Convergence of Traditional Finance (TradFi) and Crypto”]}]
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"The NAV premium is the quantitative measurement of how much the market believes you're going to buy more Bitcoin, right? And you think it's buy more Bitcoin, not that Bitcoin appreciates to close that gap."
"Does that show up in the four-year cycle? Is the four-year cycle done or not? That is the question I'm spending the most amount of time thinking about right now."
"I think that you're going to see a pre-ETF history of Bitcoin and a post-ETF history of Bitcoin."
"Crypto or Bitcoin is just going to be a part of finance. We need it to just be a company, we're a product. The Bitcoin part should be assumed. Nobody says, oh, I have an account at Bank of America to fiat bank account. No, it's a bank account, of course dollars there, right? That's where we got to get to."
"Nobody would describe BlackRock as a Bitcoin company. But BlackRock is a Bitcoin company. Why? The number one product in terms of profitability inside of BlackRock... is the Bitcoin ETF."
"I think all of these companies that are trading at very high premiums is you're going to see them essentially do whatever they possibly can do, or whatever they possibly can to raise capital or get Bitcoin off their balance sheet until those premiums collapse significantly."