🚨WHAT'S NEXT FOR BITCOIN & ALTCOINS - UPTOBER OR BEAR MARKET?
🎯 Summary
Comprehensive Podcast Summary: WHAT’S NEXT FOR BITCOIN & ALTCOINS - UPTOBER OR BEAR MARKET?
This podcast episode, hosted by Tony Edward on the Thinking Crypto podcast, focuses on analyzing the current state of the Bitcoin market to determine whether the ongoing correction signals the end of the bull market or merely a healthy pullback before a continuation, often referred to as “Octo-ber.” The host argues strongly, based on multiple quantitative indicators, that the bull market is not over.
1. Focus Area
The primary focus is Bitcoin market analysis and technical forecasting, specifically assessing the probability of a market top being in versus the continuation of the existing bull trend. Secondary topics include regulatory scrutiny of Bitcoin treasury companies and global Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) developments.
2. Key Technical Insights
- RSI Oversold Conditions are Bullish: The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) touching oversold zones, similar to levels seen after major crashes earlier in the year, is interpreted as a necessary “reset in sentiment” that is historically bullish within a broader bull market structure.
- Multiple Confluence Factors Support Bull Case: The host emphasizes that the thesis relies on looking at multiple data points simultaneously (e.g., 200-day Moving Average, Fibonacci extensions, MACD, Dominance, Fear & Greed Index) rather than relying on a single metric.
- Monthly Chart Dominance: While the weekly chart might show short-term bearish control, the monthly chart remains clearly bullish, with the MACD not yet flipped bearish and the monthly RSI not reaching previous overheated levels.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Bull Market Continuation Expected: The overwhelming conclusion, based on data probability, is that the market has more upside, with Q4 seasonality historically being very strong for crypto in bull market years.
- Patience is Key: Investors are advised against emotional reactions to short-term dips, as the current environment lacks the widespread euphoria seen at previous market tops (evidenced by low Coinbase app rankings).
- Institutional Accumulation Continues: Significant buying pressure remains evident, notably from institutions like BlackRock (iBIT ETF holding over 760,000 BTC) and treasury companies like BitMine accumulating ETH, suggesting anticipation of higher prices.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Gemini: Mentioned as a sponsor offering a Bitcoin credit card for earning crypto rewards.
- BlackRock (iBIT ETF): Highlighted for its massive and ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin.
- BitMine (Tom Lee): Noted for a large recent purchase of Ethereum.
- NIDIC: Mentioned for challenging the misleading nature of the MNAV metric used by some Bitcoin treasury companies.
- Congressman Tom Emmer: Mentioned in context regarding US legislation banning CBDCs.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
- Scrutiny of Bitcoin Treasury Firms: The host highlights concerns about the MNAV (Market Neutral Asset Value) metric used to value companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, noting that the SEC and FINRA are reportedly investigating some of these firms due to potential misleading valuations.
- CBDC Global Movement: China inaugurated an international operations center for its Digital Yuan (e-CNY), confirming the global trend toward blockchain-powered government finance, despite the host’s personal opposition to CBDCs in the US.
6. Future Implications
The conversation strongly suggests the industry is heading toward a strong Q4 performance (“Octo-ber”), driven by institutional flows and the completion of necessary cyclical corrections. Geopolitically, the stablecoin landscape is heating up, with the US potentially gaining an advantage over BRICS attempts to bypass the dollar via regulated, US Treasury-backed stablecoins.
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for Active Crypto Investors, Traders, and Financial Analysts who rely on technical analysis, on-chain metrics, and institutional flow data to form their market outlooks.
Detailed Narrative Arc and Key Discussion Points
The episode begins by addressing widespread market panic, immediately countering bearish sentiment with technical evidence suggesting the bull market remains intact. The host systematically walks through various indicators—RSI, 200-day MA, Fibonacci levels, MACD, and Bitcoin Dominance—to build a probabilistic case for continuation. He stresses that true market analysis requires a holistic view, invalidating the idea that a single negative data point dictates the entire market structure.
A significant portion is dedicated to institutional conviction, using the growing holdings of ETFs like BlackRock’s iBIT as proof that major players are positioning for higher prices, contradicting the notion of an imminent bear market.
The discussion pivots to external factors, first addressing regulatory risks surrounding the valuation methods of publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies, signaling potential turbulence in that specific sector due to regulatory oversight (SEC/FINRA). Secondly, the episode touches on the geopolitical race in digital currency, using China’s launch of the Digital Yuan international operations center to illustrate that blockchain technology adoption is inevitable, even if the specific implementation (CBDCs) is viewed critically by the host.
The overarching message is one of informed patience: the current dip is a healthy correction within a larger uptrend, and historical seasonality (Q4) combined with strong institutional accumulation points toward significant upside momentum returning soon. The host warns against emotional trading based on fear, urging listeners to remain educated students of the market data.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"Hong Kong is the testing ground. They've been opening up crypto there, and I believe, like I've been saying, my prediction is that they're going to open up Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF and maybe other ETFs as well to mainland China citizens because they don't have to worry about the capital leaving the country because it will be in an ETF wrapper."
"And they would love to take down the US dollar as the world reserve currency. And we had seen recently that BRICS countries were trying to bypass the US dollar, but I think the United States passing the Clarity for Stablecoin Act, the stablecoin bill, is a big checkmate to that."
"The theme or the takeaway I want you to get from here is not that CBDCs are good, but rather blockchain rails are going to power the governments, the markets, and the economies is what I've been telling you guys."
"The acquisition highlights a potential issue with the MNAV metric, which is used to value Bitcoin treasury firms, but can be misleading or disingenuous. NIDIC argues that MNAV fails to account for operating businesses and uses assumed shares outstanding, which can be inaccurate."
"I did call for Bitcoin Treasury companies to drop the misleading MNAV metric. So, you know, one of the things I've been telling you guys about is I see a bubble forming with the digital asset treasury companies, and that you're going to have a lot of people who are coming in who may not run their business well, and we have to watch out. This could be one of the things that blows up and sends us into a crypto bear market."
"Singapore has been one of the leaders in crypto adoption and crypto-friendliness. So while the crypto industry was attacked severely here in the United States over the past four years, Singapore was where a lot of entrepreneurs and builders went to."