Crypto's Most Hated Rally! Rate Cuts & Google & Coinbase Crypto Partnership
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: Crypto’s Most Hated Rally! Rate Cuts & Google & Coinbase Crypto Partnership
This 58-minute podcast episode provided a bullish technical and fundamental analysis of the current crypto market, focusing heavily on the anticipation of upcoming economic data, specifically the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, and major corporate developments. The hosts emphasized that despite recent price action, the market structure remains fundamentally strong for continued upside.
1. Focus Area: The primary focus was on Cryptocurrency Markets (Bitcoin and Alts), analyzed through the lens of Macroeconomic Indicators (specifically Fed rate cuts) and Major Corporate Integrations (Google/Coinbase partnership). Technical analysis centered on multi-year trend lines and market cycle indicators.
2. Key Technical Insights:
- Bitcoin Trendline Confirmation: Bitcoin’s recent price action has successfully maintained support above a multi-year trendline projected from the 2021 tops, signaling underlying strength despite previous “fake-outs.”
- Altcoin Lag: Total Market Cap 3 (excluding BTC/ETH) is showing signs of breaking a downtrend but is currently facing resistance at previous range lows, indicating Bitcoin dominance is likely to persist slightly longer before a major altcoin rotation.
- Gold/Bitcoin Correlation Signal: A historical lag analysis suggests a massive move to the upside may follow based on the current correlation pattern between gold and Bitcoin performance metrics.
3. Market/Investment Angle:
- Rate Cuts as a Bullish Catalyst: The expected rate cut (likely 25 basis points) is viewed as a significant springboard for risk assets, especially when combined with anticipated future easing cycles.
- Not a Market Top: Overwhelmingly bullish news (like the Google/Coinbase partnership) combined with macro easing suggests the market is far from a cycle top, despite historical precedents where similar events (like the Coinbase IPO) marked local peaks.
- Focus on “Great Assets”: The guest advised focusing on high-quality assets, primarily Bitcoin, along with high-beta technology stocks (Mag 7, software, cybersecurity), rather than getting lost in noise from meme coins or short-term fluctuations.
4. Notable Companies/People:
- Google & Coinbase: Their newly announced partnership was highlighted as a massive fundamental positive, potentially opening the door for significant liquidity as AI agents integrate blockchain rails for transactions.
- Federal Reserve (FOMC): The upcoming rate decision and subsequent commentary from Chairman Powell were the central macroeconomic focus.
- Caleb Franz: A featured guest who provided technical analysis, emphasizing that price is the only fact and that his analysis relies on observable data rather than subjective opinions. He specifically pointed to the three-month treasury yield as the most reliable predictor of Fed action.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion: The discussion heavily centered on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Caleb Franz stressed that the bond market, specifically the one-month and three-month treasury yields, provides a superior, fact-based signal for predicting Fed rate cuts compared to the CME FedWatch Tool or general sentiment. The consensus is that the market is moving into a net easing environment, which is accretive to asset prices.
6. Future Implications: The conversation suggests a strong bias toward continued upside in the near-to-mid-term, driven by anticipated monetary easing and major technological adoption (AI integrating blockchain). The market is expected to continue forming higher highs and higher lows, provided the underlying technical structure holds.
7. Target Audience: Crypto Investors and Traders with an interest in Macroeconomics and Technical Analysis. Professionals seeking to understand the confluence of Fed policy, institutional adoption, and chart structure will find this most valuable.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"Right here right now, because we just flashed that oversold condition, we should all be looking for Bitcoin's 60-day Williams Percent R oscillator to now become overbought. We want to get this momentum thrust, right?"
"does the stablecoin deployment and integrations and so on and so forth start to break what we've seen as a trend in previous cycles with altcoins as it relates to Bitcoin because of the new legislation and the types of players that are going to be getting involved?"
"If you look at just the market cap of that asset, and I do this regularly, and I'll show everybody just as an example, just so you all can understand this when we're looking for instance, let's go to Chainlink. If we look at Chainlink, very simple TA here, let's go to all. Here's price. So people keep wondering, what can this do when it's previous all-time highs? It can have the same extension to the high. We'll go to market cap and look at where this is."
"Total 3 minus USDT minus USDC. So this is basically the altcoin universe, right?"
"I was highlighting this in advance, telling them when this signal flashes, I'm going to be using this to stack more Bitcoin. And these were the first Bitcoin purchases that I had made since March of 2025, when we were trading around $78, $79,000."
"The thesis is really that simple, right? Is the Fed and central banks around the world are going to print a lot of money, or they're at least going to do a lot of QE, they're going to artificially suppress interest rates. And what that means is that dollar-denominated assets have tailwinds to rise."