Why Bitcoin Will Crash Like Every Other 4 Year Cycle | Henrik Zeberg
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: Why Bitcoin Will Crash Like Every Other 4 Year Cycle | Henrik Zeberg
This episode features an in-depth discussion between Anthony Pompliano and macro economist Henrik Zeberg (Swiss Block) regarding the current state of the global economy, asset valuations, and the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, arguing that the market is nearing a late-cycle peak, not an early-stage recovery.
1. Focus Area
The primary focus is Macroeconomics and Risk Asset Valuation, specifically analyzing whether the current economic environment signals an early recovery or a late-cycle peak. Key areas covered include the deterioration of the “real economy” (consumer health, employment), the unsustainable nature of asset price inflation driven by central bank easing, the concept of a “blow-off top,” and the persistence of the 4-year Bitcoin cycle despite technological advancements.
2. Key Technical Insights
- Late-Cycle Indicators: Zeberg argues that current data—deteriorating job numbers, declining short-term yields, and central banks preparing to ease—are classic indicators of a late-cycle phase, not an early recovery.
- Real Economy vs. Liquidity System: The core technical distinction is between the struggling “real economy” (where consumers are stressed) and the “liquidity system” (asset prices), which can be temporarily inflated by central bank actions but cannot sustain a tidal wave of economic deterioration.
- Blow-Off Top Definition: A blow-off top is characterized by the unprecedented speed and magnitude of asset price increases, exemplified by the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching valuations far exceeding historical norms (e.g., 1929, 2000 dot-com bubble).
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Caution Advised for Risk Assets: Zeberg strongly suggests that investors holding risk assets (stocks, crypto) may fare poorly in the coming months as the late cycle culminates.
- Bitcoin’s Cyclicality: Despite macro headwinds, Zeberg anticipates that the euphoria phase will likely push Bitcoin significantly higher (e.g., $160,000) before the inevitable crash, aligning with the historical 4-year cycle pattern.
- K-Shaped Economy Divergence: The discussion highlights a massive divergence where asset owners thrive while the lower segment of the economy struggles with inflation and high rates, suggesting this divergence is unsustainable.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Henrik Zeberg (Swiss Block): The expert providing the bearish late-cycle macro analysis.
- Anthony Pompliano (Pomp Investments): Host challenging Zeberg on whether modern technology and dollar debasement fundamentally change historical valuation metrics.
- Nvidia/Cisco: Used as comparative examples to illustrate that even revolutionary technology (AI/Internet) does not prevent massive asset bubbles from bursting.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
The discussion centers on Central Bank Policy (Monetary Easing). Zeberg notes that central banks only begin easing in the late phase of the cycle because they are inherently late to recognize deterioration. This artificial stimulus, while potentially pushing asset prices higher temporarily, cannot save a fundamentally broken real economy, contrasting sharply with the belief that stimulus can indefinitely prop up markets.
6. Future Implications
The conversation suggests the industry is heading toward a significant market correction or recession driven by the real economy’s failure, even if asset prices experience a final euphoric surge beforehand. The repeated narrative that “this time is different” due to technology (AI, internet) or monetary policy (debasement) is identified as a classic hallmark preceding market busts, implying that historical cycles will reassert themselves.
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for Crypto and Traditional Finance Investors, Macro Analysts, and Financial Professionals who need a contrarian, data-driven perspective on market timing, risk management, and the interplay between monetary policy and asset bubbles.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"I cannot see how this ends without a monetary reset at some point where there's simply, you know, clean up this mess that we have right now in terms of, you know, money printing, crypto all over the place, and speculation about, you know, what will be the next foundation for the global finance system, financial system, and so on."
"I think you're going to see now the blow-off top. Everybody will be a genius because they are long Bitcoin or long something as some crypto. And then they will realize that there is a top to these things and they can actually crash quite quite a lot."
"So everything we know about investing that we learned over the last 10, 15 years has to be really stressful. And we need to understand that we are now in the late 1940s, and we need to see it look into a world that's going to be quite different from what we've been looking at so far."
"And then you'll see the Fed come out and they reintroduce because you have now a new cyclical or secular boom market in that you've got to see inflation come back. And it's going to go much, much higher the next decade."
"We don't have an inflationary problem. That is so spoken up. We have a deflationary pressure that is quite significant. Look to housing and to rental and so on. These are the big stuff."
"What they have done is, as I said before, they have reintroduced inflation."