New Token Launch? Use These Pro Tips to Win Early
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: New Token Launch? Use These Pro Tips to Win Early
This 21-minute podcast episode, hosted by Nick from Coin Bureau, provides an educational breakdown of a report by Erakus Finance analyzing the performance of major token launches in the first half of 2025. The central theme is identifying the patterns that separated successful token launches from those that “face-planted,” offering listeners a framework to navigate future Token Generation Events (TGEs).
1. Focus Area
The discussion is squarely focused on Crypto/Web3, specifically analyzing the Tokenomics, market dynamics, and early trading performance of newly launched tokens (TGEs) to derive actionable investment insights.
2. Key Technical Insights
- Early Relative Strength (BTC Terms): The most reliable early indicator is a token’s performance relative to Bitcoin (BTC) in the first few weeks; tokens that outperform BTC early tend to maintain momentum, while those that lag rarely recover.
- Supply Overhang and Valuation Gaps: High initial Fully Diluted Valuations (FDV) driven by massive premiums over private sale prices create immediate supply overhang, punishing tokens where retail investors feel they are simply “exit liquidity.”
- Circulating Supply Nuance: Contrary to past sentiment, the study suggests that a low initial circulating supply (under 20% float) can be bullish if paired with a conservative launch valuation and a sensible vesting schedule, preventing immediate selling stampedes.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Skepticism Towards Hype: Six out of ten highly hyped, large-cap launches studied ended below their launch price, proving that blue-chip optics and prominent backers do not guarantee success.
- Market Timing vs. Product: Launching immediately following a significant Bitcoin rally (e.g., 20%+ run) often leads to token “hangovers” due to market exhaustion; launches during sideways BTC action often fare better initially.
- Volume as a Health Metric: A sharp drop-off in trading volume within the first month post-launch is a strong negative signal, often preceding significant price declines, indicating fading interest.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Erakus Finance: The source of the underlying research report, “Why Your TGE Will Probably Fail: Lessons from H1 2025’s Top Token Launches.”
- Successful Tokens Mentioned: IP (Story Protocol), WCT (WalletConnect’s token), Init (INIT), and Kaito (notable exception that overcame high premiums due to strong AI narrative/product-market fit).
- Underperforming Tokens Mentioned: Berachain (Bearer token), which suffered the worst performance (74% loss) despite massive hype, largely due to a high public premium.
- Axiom: Mentioned as a trading terminal solution to streamline the complex data monitoring required for new token launches (liquidity, supply, holder concentration).
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
No direct regulatory or policy discussion was featured; the focus remained strictly on market mechanics, tokenomics, and trading strategy.
6. Future Implications
The conversation suggests that the market is maturing beyond the speculative frenzy of 2021. Future success for new tokens will depend less on pure hype or investor pedigree and more on demonstrable product-market fit, disciplined token distribution, and favorable macro timing relative to Bitcoin’s cycle. Investors must conduct deeper due diligence on tokenomics documents rather than relying on marketing.
7. Target Audience
This content is highly valuable for Crypto/Web3 professional traders, DeFi participants, and serious retail investors who actively participate in or monitor new token launches and initial DEX offerings (IDOs/TGEs).
Comprehensive Summary Narrative
The episode dissects the factors determining success or failure in recent major token launches, using the Erakus Finance report as a foundation. The core narrative establishes that despite high initial valuations and blue-chip backing, the majority of hyped 2025 launches failed to maintain their opening price.
The discussion pinpoints three primary reasons for failure: rapid liquidity drying up, price sticker shock stemming from excessive premiums over private sale prices, and reflexive sentiment loops where early price action dictates future momentum.
The most actionable insight derived is the importance of early relative strength against Bitcoin. Tokens that show immediate momentum against the market tide are far more likely to succeed, suggesting momentum is a self-fulfilling prophecy in crypto trading.
The analysis then delves into specific tokenomic pitfalls. The gap between private and public sale prices is crucial; tokens like Berachain, which launched at a 1,200%+ premium, were punished severely, whereas those with modest markups (like IP) succeeded. Conversely, the study found that a low initial circulating supply is not inherently negative if the vesting schedule is transparent and reasonable. Airdrop size showed no clear correlation with success, emphasizing that expectation management among claimants is key.
Finally, the episode integrates macro timing, stressing that launching immediately after a major Bitcoin rally often results in a “hangover” effect for the new token. The ideal scenario identified is a token launching when Bitcoin is trading sideways, offering a cleaner runway for price discovery, provided the token itself demonstrates early relative strength and maintains trading volume. The overall takeaway is a strong caution against relying on hype; success hinges on analyzing transparent tokenomics, monitoring early momentum against BTC, and assessing market appetite post-Bitcoin moves.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"A list of prestigious investor names and large-cap status doesn't necessarily mean much for a token's success. In fact, it can be a bad omen."
"If that energy drops off sharply, though, like if volume falls by half in the first month, and the price is moving up, it's a sign that interest is fading, and the token is more likely to keep on sliding."
"ignoring Bitcoin can be risky, even if you are extremely bullish on a new token launch."
"If Bitcoin has just rallied by 20-plus percent and begins to show signs of exhaustion, it's probably best to treat any imminent token launch with some caution."
"You may have noticed, by the way, that none of this requires insider connections. Every serious project publishes tokenomics, vesting clips, and last round numbers in its documentation. And if it doesn't, you're likely better off ignoring it."
"The only premium outlier that worked was Kaito. It launched at an eye-watering 1,800% markup, and yet rallied anyway. However, this is undoubtedly thanks to Kaito's product-market fit and an AI narrative the market couldn't ignore."