4 Year Bitcoin Cycle OVER?! The Truth About The 2025 Bull Run!
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: 4 Year Bitcoin Cycle OVER?! The Truth About The 2025 Bull Run!
This 24-minute podcast episode critically examines the current state of the Bitcoin market cycle, arguing that the traditional, predictable four-year rhythm (driven by the halving) is being fundamentally altered by new structural demand forces, leading to a “weird” but potentially sustained bull market environment.
1. Focus Area
The primary focus is on Bitcoin market cycle analysis, contrasting the historical four-year cadence with the structural changes introduced by institutional adoption (ETFs, corporate treasuries), evolving retail speculation (memecoins), and shifting regulatory landscapes. It also touches upon the implications for the broader altcoin market, specifically highlighting Real-World Assets (RWAs) as a key beneficiary sector outside of Bitcoin.
2. Key Technical Insights
- MVRV Z-Score as a Top Indicator: The episode references the MVRV Z-score as a historical on-chain metric where a reading above 7 has accompanied every major cycle top, noting that the current reading is still well below this danger zone for mid-2025.
- Volatility Compression: Realized volatility (3-month window) is remarkably low (below 50%), attributed to the heavy institutional mix and longer holding periods dampening reflexive price swings, a dynamic not seen in previous euphoric cycles.
- L2 Transactional Dominance: Ethereum Layer 2 rollups (like Base) are processing significantly more transactions per second than Ethereum L1 due to improved UX, modular data availability, and near-zero fees, indicating a migration of activity away from high L1 gas costs.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Structural Demand Sinks: The primary driver of current market structure is the massive, autopilot accumulation by US Spot Bitcoin ETFs (custodying ~$135B) and Corporate Treasuries (led by MicroStrategy), which are effectively removing float from circulation.
- Cycle Tempo Shift: The traditional supply shock from the halving is being superseded by macro liquidity conditions (Fed policy) and institutional entry timing, leading some analysts (like Bybit CIO Matt Hogan) to suggest the traditional four-year cycle is “over.”
- Altcoin Divergence: The speculative froth has inverted; memecoins are front-running blue chips, and altcoin drawdowns are shallower (-30% max) but more prolonged than the 50-70% resets seen previously, suggesting a less explosive, more contained altcoin market.
4. Notable Companies/People
- MicroStrategy: Highlighted as the leading corporate Bitcoin accumulator, acting as a “Bitcoin vacuum cleaner.”
- BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust: Mentioned as the largest ETF, holding a significant percentage of total potential BTC supply.
- Glassnode & Ebeneer Group: Referenced for providing data supporting the analysis of ETF mandates and market calm.
- Bybit CIO Matt Hogan: Quoted as a key voice suggesting macro catalysts have replaced block reward math as the cycle driver.
- Aave: Cited as a DeFi blue chip demonstrating real product usage and profitable cash flows ($85M annualized protocol revenue), setting a new standard for institutional due diligence beyond mere TVL.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
- Favorable US Policy Shift: The current environment is marked by a “deregulatory blitz” compared to previous cycles. Key developments include the Senate clearing a federal stablecoin bill (Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act) and a pro-crypto SEC dropping enforcement cases.
- Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A landmark executive order under the Trump administration created a US sovereign Bitcoin reserve within the Treasury, mandating that all forfeited BTC be locked away and “not sold,” signaling Washington’s acceptance of BTC as “digital gold.”
- Global Alignment: The rollout of MiCA in Europe further contributes to a clearer regulatory map globally.
6. Future Implications
The conversation suggests the industry is moving toward a Bitcoin-centric, institutionally accepted asset class, where macro liquidity and regulatory clarity dictate the pace more than hard-coded supply mechanics. The altcoin market is expected to bifurcate: memecoins will persist due to retail desire for high-beta plays, but institutional capital venturing further out the risk curve is likely to cluster around Real-World Assets (RWAs), particularly tokenized treasuries and credit, due to their verifiable yield and integration with traditional finance rails (e.g., BlackRock’s BUIDL fund). The market rhythm is compared to jazz—familiar motifs but unpredictable timing.
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for Crypto Investors, Financial Analysts, and Institutional Strategists who need to understand how structural shifts (ETFs, regulation) are invalidating historical cycle models and how to reposition capital in the current, more complex market environment.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"BlackRock's BUIDL fund alone commands $2.9 billion and can now be posted as collateral on major crypto venues, proof that Wall Street's rails and DeFi's pipes are finally meshing."
"With this backdrop, one altcoin sector in particular stands out: real-world assets, or RWAs."
"Bybit CIO Matt Hogan argues that macro catalysts, not block reward math supply shocks, now set the tempo, and that "the traditional four-year cycle is over in crypto.""
"has the typical four-year cycle flatlined?"
"An executive order issued in March this year created a strategic Bitcoin reserve inside the Treasury and required all forfeited BTC to be transferred there and, quote, 'not sold.'"
"Put together, 2025's weirdness is structural. Supply is trapped in ETF vaults and corporate treasuries. Trading activity has migrated to cheaper rails. Retail speculation has reorganized around memes, and volatility is oddly tame, and the rulebook is being rewritten in real time."