Udi Wertheimer on Why Bitcoin Could Reach $400,000 by Year's End - Ep. 872
🎯 Summary
Udi Wertheimer on Why Bitcoin Could Reach $400,000 by Year’s End - Ep. 872
This podcast episode features Udi Wertheimer, a long-time Bitcoin advocate, presenting a highly bullish thesis for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, drawing a direct parallel to the unexpected, explosive run of Dogecoin in 2021. Wertheimer argues that Bitcoin is nearing the end of a generational rotation where long-term, early holders are finally selling out, creating a supply vacuum that will be filled by new, structurally committed buyers.
1. Focus Area
The discussion centers entirely on Bitcoin market dynamics, supply-side exhaustion, and historical asset rotation patterns. The core theme is the transition of Bitcoin ownership from early adopters/profit-takers to institutional and corporate balance sheet holders (Treasury strategy).
2. Key Technical Insights
- Supply Exhaustion at Current Levels: Wertheimer posits that most early holders who intended to sell around the $100,000 mark have likely already done so. This means current inflows are meeting significantly reduced selling pressure, suggesting price appreciation is imminent even without accelerating inflows.
- Forced Buyers vs. Forced Sellers: For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, there are structural “forced buyers” (e.g., MicroStrategy, Bitcoin Treasury companies) whose mandate requires continuous accumulation, contrasting with previous cycles dominated by forced sellers (e.g., 3AC, Luna liquidations).
- ETF Chart Anchoring: New institutional buyers accessing Bitcoin via ETFs (like IBIT) do not have the same psychological price anchors as early crypto natives. Seeing the ETF price move from $30 to $65 seems reasonable, whereas OGs anchored to sub-penny prices see $100k+ as a massive bubble peak.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Price Prediction: Wertheimer suggests that if current inflow rates remain constant, the price will move “much higher,” implying a potential run toward $400,000 by year’s end, driven by the lack of sellers.
- Under-exposure of Crypto Natives: Many sophisticated crypto investors have been “asleep at the wheel” regarding the success of the Bitcoin Treasury strategy (like MicroStrategy), leading them to be structurally under-exposed for this next leg up.
- The Dogecoin Analogy: The current setup mirrors Dogecoin in 2019-2021, where crypto natives sold into accumulating retail/normie cohorts (TikTok/Robinhood users) who were unaware of the asset’s history, leading to explosive, unexpected price action once the old supply was exhausted.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Udi Wertheimer: The guest, presenting the core thesis.
- Michael Saylor / MicroStrategy: Highlighted as the primary example of a successful, mandated corporate buyer whose strategy was initially discounted by crypto natives.
- Dante Disparte (Circle): Mentioned in the context of listener comments regarding regulatory acts.
- Dogecoin (DOGE): Used as the primary historical analogue for the current Bitcoin supply rotation.
- Zoppo Bank & Ledn: Mentioned as sponsors offering Bitcoin-backed lending services.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
A brief segment featured listener comments reacting to the Clarity for Responsible Financial Innovation Act. The sentiment expressed by listeners was that such regulation often prioritizes bank interests over individual freedom, particularly concerning CBDCs, and lacks safeguards for the public in case of financial resets (unlike the 2008 bailouts).
6. Future Implications
The conversation suggests Bitcoin is entering a phase where institutional and corporate accumulation acts as a powerful, continuous demand floor, fundamentally changing the supply/demand curve. This shift could lead to price discovery far beyond what previous retail-driven cycles suggested, potentially retiring the old cycle sellers and rewarding those who recognize the new structural buyers.
7. Target Audience
This episode is highly valuable for experienced crypto investors, institutional analysts, and Bitcoin maximalists who need a deep, contrarian analysis of current market structure and historical parallels to inform high-conviction investment theses.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
""The biggest loser of this cycle will probably be Ethereum. MSTR has probably flipped Ethereum's market cap. Ethereum will literally fulfill the prophecy: there is no second best,""
""Your own coins are fucked. Most of them will not be able to keep up with the sheer amount of capital flowing into Bitcoin.""
"I think it's a lot more dangerous with the other treasuries of other coins that are not Bitcoin because especially the small ones, because what you get with Bitcoin, it's almost kind of easy. If you start a new Bitcoin Treasury company, you don't have to think too hard. You just buy as much Bitcoin as you can..."
"And I would imagine that a lot of them are going to try to outperform by just taking a lot of leverage and taking a lot of risk. And some of them will blow up. It's very possible. Some of them will set themselves up in a way that they cannot even withstand, you know, whatever, a 3% drop, which we all know is very normal and happens all the time in Bitcoin."
"It's probably going to become more acceptable to have Bitcoin in your retirement account and stuff like that, that I think people are going to—like, portfolio managers are going to start advising people to do that."
"I still think that there's not a ton of retail flowing into Bitcoin. There's, again, there's some, but I think it seems to be mostly institutional capital. One is through the Bitcoin Treasury plays, like we said, and the other is just through the ETFs."