What 72hrs in China taught me about the future (AI, EVs, more)
🎯 Summary
Comprehensive Summary of Technology Observations from a Trip to China
This podcast episode provides a detailed, on-the-ground analysis of recent observations made by the host during a trip to China, focusing on three core areas: Infrastructure & Engineering, Artificial Intelligence (AI) Ecosystem, and the Electric Vehicle (EV) Industry. The overarching theme is the sheer scale, quality, and rapid advancement of Chinese technological and physical development compared to Western counterparts.
1. Infrastructure and Engineering: Scale and Quality
The host was immediately struck by the pristine, well-functioning, and massive scale of public infrastructure, contrasting sharply with experiences in US airports (like JFK) and highways (like the Long Island Expressway).
- Key Observations: Beijing Airport was noted as exceptionally clean and well-ordered, comparable to Heathrow Terminal Five. A convention center visited was noted as 1.4 million square meters—100 times the size of San Francisco’s Union Square—built in just a few years.
- Transportation: High-speed rail (Beijing to Tianjin) was incredibly efficient, punctual, and cheap (approx. $20 for a 30-minute journey at over 300 km/h). Roads and expressways were described as “impeccable.”
- Strategic Insight: This infrastructure represents decades of serious, sustained investment, built to last and be maintained, setting a high physical foundation for technological deployment.
2. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Vertical Focus vs. General Models
The discussion highlighted a divergence in AI strategy between the US and China.
- US Focus: Strong emphasis on building powerful, abstract, highly general Large Language Models (LLMs) based on the belief that generalizability drives superior applications.
- China Focus: While competitive LLMs exist (e.g., Qwen series, DeepSeek), the ecosystem is rapidly advancing with highly vertical applications leveraging massive user bases for data collection.
- Technical/Business Examples:
- Apollo (Self-Driving): This consortium in Wuhan is reportedly profitable on a unit cost basis, deploying autonomous vehicles costing around $11,000 per unit.
- Yidu Tech (Healthcare): This company has analyzed 5.5 billion authorized medical records covering nearly a billion patients, demonstrating the power of scale within a public health system (yibao).
- Squirrel AI (Education): Founder Derek Lee showcased an adaptive education platform serving 24 million students. The most striking finding was a study where students taught by the Squirrel AI system showed significantly better learning outcomes than those taught by “super teachers” (the top 1 in 3,000 educators). This required immense, granular work on subject-specific skill pathways and metacognitive frameworks.
- Challenges Highlighted: Chinese LLM developers (like DeepSeek) are feeling the pressure of semiconductor controls, potentially delaying high-quality model releases due to compute shortages.
- Strategic Insight: China is effectively demonstrating how massive scale and data access can accelerate the disruption of high-cost service sectors (healthcare, education) that have historically resisted technological cost reduction in the West (“cost disease”).
3. Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Automotive Industry
The host reiterated a long-held prediction that China’s strategy of skipping deep ICE innovation to focus on EVs would yield massive cost leadership via Wright’s Law (the learning curve).
- Market Discipline: The “vicious domestic market” has disciplined Chinese manufacturers like BYD, forcing rapid iteration and cost reduction.
- Product Quality & Luxury: The host experienced a high-end BYD vehicle (via Didi) that offered luxury features (massage seats, fridge, premium interior) rivaling or exceeding US prestige vehicles like the Lincoln Aviator and approaching the level of a Mercedes S-Class or Range Rover, but at significantly keener prices.
- Business Model Innovation: The Octopus Energy/BYD Dolphin deal in the UK was highlighted as a fascinating model where EV charging is integrated into a Virtual Power Plant (VPP). Users can effectively get the car for free by allowing their vehicle’s charge to be borrowed by the grid to smooth demand, contributing to infrastructure stability.
- Environmental Impact: The proliferation of EVs was directly linked to dramatically improved air quality in Beijing compared to polluted areas in London, despite similar high temperatures.
- Prediction: The host believes the cost competitiveness of Chinese EVs will result in a “tidal wave” hitting global markets, regardless of tariffs, noting that European automakers currently benefit from a temporary lull in Tesla’s European popularity.
Context and Conclusion
This conversation matters because it provides a direct, comparative assessment of where China leads in execution—particularly in infrastructure deployment and the application of AI to massive, real-world service problems. The host, identified as an expert likely associated with Exponential View (Azeem Azhar), emphasizes that the Chinese approach prioritizes vertical, data-rich applications built upon a foundation of superior physical infrastructure, presenting a significant competitive challenge to Western technology strategies focused primarily on abstract general models.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"The prices of these cars are incredibly keen. It's going to be a tidal wave, tariffs or not."
"The deal involves the BYD Dolphin... you'll pay your leasing fee, and provided you plug it in enough, you'll get paid or get free charging because it's going to form part of a virtual power plant."
"The investment in EVs, skipping internal combustion engine innovation, focusing on the EV platform, was going to put Chinese car companies far ahead."
"The result was that the students who went through the Squirrel AI system had far better learning outcomes than those who were taught by the very, very best teachers in their field."
"European car makers have had a moment of respite because Elon Musk and Tesla have rather fallen out of fashion in Europe right now, with sales down 27% for Tesla, even though the market's up 28%."
"Sense of luxury, definitely above a Lincoln, definitely above a modern BMW 7 Series, probably not quite where the S-Class is or maybe not quite where the Range Rover is, but really, really close to that."