#1562 Jordi Visser | Short Squeeze Incoming? Bitcoin, Iran, and the Global Power Crisis

Unknown Source June 14, 2025 36 min

artificial-intelligence investment generative-ai microsoft google

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63 Companies

68 Key Quotes

3 Topics

1 Insights

🎯 Summary

Podcast Episode Summary: #1562 Jordi Visser | Short Squeeze Incoming? Bitcoin, Iran, and the Global Power Crisis

This episode of the Pom Podcast features Anthony Pompliano in conversation with Jordi Visser, focusing on the immediate market reaction to the Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions, the structural implications of the AI energy demand, and the shifting macroeconomic landscape, particularly concerning inflation and potential Fed rate cuts.

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1. Focus Area

The discussion centered on Geopolitics and Macroeconomics impacting Asset Allocation, with significant emphasis on:

• The immediate market fallout (Gold, Oil, Bitcoin) from the Israel-Iran conflict.
• The structural, long-term investment theme of Energy/Power demand driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
• Analysis of recent weak US inflation data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy (rate cuts).
• The evolving US-China trade relationship, framed as a necessary “separation” rather than outright conflict.

2. Key Technical Insights

• AI Power Demand Quantification: The conversation highlighted the massive, potentially bottlenecking energy requirements of AI, evidenced by Oracle’s “insatiable and astronomical” demand figures and Google’s report of token demand being 50 times higher year-over-year.
• LLMs Replacing Traditional Data Sources: Jordi Visser noted that he now uses Perplexity for roughly 60% of his financial research, effectively replacing significant time previously spent on the Bloomberg Terminal, demonstrating a shift in how finance professionals consume real-time, detailed data by turning text into actionable data.
• Labor Market Softness: Despite headline strength, the underlying US labor market is showing weakness outside of government-supported sectors (leisure/hospitality, healthcare), suggesting underlying economic fragility that supports dovish Fed action.

3. Market/Investment Angle

• Geopolitical Shocks are Transitory: Visser argued that historical precedent shows geopolitical conflicts (like the recent Iran strike) cause initial volatility but rarely have long-lasting economic impacts unless they cause sustained supply shocks (e.g., oil staying above $100 for months).
• The Dominant Theme: Power & Energy: The primary investment thesis is focusing on the Venn diagram intersection of structural energy demand (driven by AI) and potential supply shocks (Middle East instability). Energy names are positioned to benefit from both structural growth and short-term risk premiums on oil.
• Bitcoin as Non-Hedge: Visser explicitly stated he does not view Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge, seeing its correlation tied more closely to the broader economy and risk assets (stocks). A potential short squeeze for Bitcoin later in the year was hinted at as a possibility, though not deeply explored.

4. Notable Companies/People

• Jordi Visser: Guest analyst providing market structure and trading perspectives based on 30 years of experience.
• Larry Ellison (Oracle): Cited for his commentary confirming “insatiable” AI demand, leading to massive CAPEX ($25B+ next year).
• Sundar Pichai (Google): Mentioned for providing data on the parabolic growth in AI token demand.
• Perplexity: Highlighted as a superior, real-time LLM tool for financial research compared to traditional terminals.

5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion

• Fed Rate Cut Expectation: Weak CPI data, coupled with a softening labor market (rising jobless claims), strongly suggests the Federal Reserve is now likely headed toward a rate cut, with a 65% probability assigned to a September cut unless inflation unexpectedly spikes due to oil prices.
• US-China Trade “Separation”: The current dynamic is described as a “separation period before the divorce,” where both nations are trying to build supply chain resilience (US focusing on manufacturing/rare earth sourcing; China on consumption stimulus). This mediation phase reduces immediate trade war impact.

6. Future Implications

The conversation suggests the market is entering a unique phase where AI-driven structural demand for energy will override traditional macroeconomic correlations. Investors should focus on energy infrastructure and supply rather than reacting emotionally to geopolitical headlines. Furthermore, the increasing utility of specialized LLMs like Perplexity signals a fundamental shift in how high-level financial data analysis is conducted, potentially disrupting established data providers.

7. Target Audience

This episode is most valuable for Professional Investors, Hedge Fund Managers, and Financial Analysts who require high-level synthesis of geopolitical risk, macroeconomic data, and structural technology trends (AI/Energy) to inform tactical and strategic portfolio positioning.

🏢 Companies Mentioned

Swifts ✅ Infrastructure/Other

Swift ✅ Infrastructure/Payments

Walmart ✅ Institution (Potential Stablecoin Issuer)

Amazon ✅ Institution (Potential Stablecoin Issuer)

Invest Like The Best ✅ Media/Content

Bloomberg ✅ Infrastructure (Traditional Benchmark)

ChatGPT ✅ AI Tool (OpenAI Product)

Google ✅ Technology/AI (Infrastructure Driver)

Microsoft ✅ Technology/AI (Infrastructure Driver)

Now I ✅ unknown

Patrick O ✅ unknown

Invest Like The Best ✅ unknown

Bill Gurley ✅ unknown

This Mastercard World Elite ✅ unknown

JD Vance ✅ unknown

💬 Key Insights

"I think we're going to enter a period very quickly of stablecoin explosive growth, not this linear growth, I mean explosive volume growth."

Impact Score: 10

"Bill Gurley had an excellent podcast this week on Invest Like The Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy. He went through what he called, I think he called it VC unicorn zombies. This equates directly into the crypto space, and I think theoretically, I think right now, Solana and Ethereum are basically unicorn zombies for now."

Impact Score: 10

"I think that's where alternative data should migrate to. I think people should be turning text into data for me and into real-time information where I can consume an enormous amount of detail."

Impact Score: 10

"I use Perplexity for everything related to finance. It has, for the most part, taken away and now 60% of my Bloomberg usage, which is amazing to me. I never thought as someone who's been using a Bloomberg for 30 years, that that would happen."

Impact Score: 10

"The problem for everyone is going to be that artificial intelligence is going to disrupt all of the historical correlations between the economy and profit margins that they've seen."

Impact Score: 10

"The way that I look at the Oracle thing is anyone who's doubting the demand side of AI is missing it. We have a supply problem. That's going to keep growth going in the US."

Impact Score: 10

📊 Topics

#artificialintelligence 66 #investment 9 #generativeai 8

🧠 Key Takeaways

💡 be looking at or pointing out where risk could exist that people are kind of blind to