Real Vision Alpha SNEAK PEEK: Shooting the Sh!t with Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
🎯 Summary
Real Vision Alpha SNEAK PEEK: Shooting the Sh!t with Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel - Comprehensive Summary
This 36-minute episode is a “sneak peek” into the premium, informal “Raoul and Julian Shooting the Sh!t” segment of Real Vision, offering listeners a behind-the-scenes look at Raoul Pal and Julian Bittel’s market analysis process, focusing heavily on macro indicators, crypto technicals, and their current investment theses.
1. Focus Area
The discussion centers on the intersection of Macroeconomics (especially inflation and growth momentum), Financial Conditions, and Cryptocurrency Market Technical Analysis. A significant portion is dedicated to validating their prior expectations regarding the ISM (Purchasing Managers’ Index) rebound and analyzing the implications for global liquidity (M2) and the US Dollar.
2. Key Technical Insights
- ISM Rebound Confirmation: Their long-held thesis that the expected recession/ISM collapse was incorrect is being validated by recent regional PMI data showing significantly stronger growth momentum than consensus expected. This forces a “reprice” of growth expectations.
- Financial Conditions vs. M2: Financial conditions (a composite of yields, dollar, commodities) are shown to lead Global M2. The recent easing in financial conditions suggests a potential bottoming/reversal in M2, which is crucial for predicting the next major market phase.
- Bitcoin/Altcoin Setups: Several major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Solana, Coinbase, Ethereum) are exhibiting classic bullish continuation patterns, primarily Inverse Head and Shoulders formations, suggesting potential for significant upside once current corrective chop resolves.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Timing the Correction: The expected corrective phase in markets (potentially August/September) is heavily tied to the US Dollar’s next move. If the Dollar moves higher toward 104 (as DeMark counts suggest), it would unlock this corrective period.
- Anticipating Phase 3: Pal suggests that after the current sideways/minor correction (Phase 2), the market is setting up for Phase 3: the final speculative frenzy, characterized by a final leg lower in the Dollar, potentially lower rates, and a speculative climax.
- Crypto Strength Indicators: Low Solana levels (below 50) are highlighted as historical precursors to massive rallies (10x moves), suggesting current weakness might be an accumulation opportunity. Bitcoin dominance falling below 61.5% is flagged as the true start of a major altseason.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Raoul Pal & Julian Bittel: The hosts, providing their proprietary analytical frameworks (GMI financial conditions model, DeMark counts, wave counting).
- Bitwise Investments: Heavily promoted as the “best crypto asset manager,” highlighting their ETF offerings, private alpha strategies, and institutional Ethereum staking services.
- FIGA & Ledn: Sponsors offering crypto-backed lending solutions, emphasizing the ability to access liquidity without selling Bitcoin.
- Tesla, Coinbase (COIN), Rocket Lab (RKLB): Mentioned as high-conviction stock/asset trades showing strong technical setups (especially inverse H&S patterns).
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
There was no substantive discussion on specific regulatory frameworks or policy changes within this segment, as the focus remained strictly on market structure and technical analysis.
6. Future Implications
The conversation strongly implies that the current market environment is transitioning from a period of uncertainty (the “boring zone”) into a more defined, potentially explosive growth phase, particularly within crypto (altseason). The key is correctly timing the Dollar’s peak to position for the final speculative leg (Phase 3) before 2030’s “economic singularity.”
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for experienced crypto traders, macro investors, and existing Real Vision subscribers who are familiar with Pal’s proprietary terminology (GMI, DeMark counts, Phase 1/2/3 cycles) and are looking for actionable, high-conviction trade ideas derived from top-down analysis.
Comprehensive Narrative Summary
The podcast opens with Raoul Pal framing this segment as a privileged look behind the Real Vision paywall, showcasing the casual yet alpha-rich discussions he has with Julian Bittel.
The core of the discussion immediately dives into macro validation. Pal confirms that recent economic data (PMIs) is beating expectations, validating their prior contrarian view that a deep recession was unlikely. This stronger growth momentum requires them to reprice their models, shifting focus from recession fears to managing stronger growth expectations.
A critical technical link is established between Financial Conditions (Pal’s proprietary index) and Global M2. They observe that financial conditions are leading M2 lower, suggesting a corrective phase is imminent, likely centered around August/September, heavily dependent on the US Dollar’s trajectory. Pal presents DeMark wave counts suggesting the Dollar could rally to 104, which would trigger this correction. However, he maintains that the medium-term trend for the Dollar is lower, setting the stage for Phase 3—the final, most speculative leg of the cycle.
The conversation pivots sharply to crypto technicals. Despite minor recent chop, the underlying charts for Bitcoin, Solana, and Coinbase are overwhelmingly bullish, displaying textbook Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns. Solana’s low levels are specifically flagged as a historical signal for massive upside. They contrast the current environment (rising liquidity, strong growth repricing) with previous overbought readings where liquidity was draining, concluding that the current market structure supports further upside rather than an immediate reversal.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"I think again, this is the classic sign of alt season. I think somewhere here, once it breaks this, then we're going back up here. And that'll be the start of something much bigger, I think. Finally. And that's the classic sign of some sort of alt season. [Referring to an altcoin chart showing an inverse head and shoulders]"
"Nothing in crypto concerns me in any way, shape, or form. It's just chopping around here, feels like we're just going to be weaker for a bit by digesting various bits and news before we have the next leg."
"We got that inverse head and shoulders there on Coinbase. That was that was big. Yeah, and it still feels like bit corrective. And then the next move, because the chart in Hood, we look at the weekly chart, is not in Hood, in Coinbase, is a very, very, very big inverse head and shoulders. And this chart pattern is a monster. You know, something, something around here, we break, we break that previous high, this level, and this thing is literally going to a thousand."
"Bitcoin dominance has peaked, and it peaked. It went up, put another nine, and I think it's going to continue to fall from here. So that's like the start of the alt season, but really it won't fall until we start getting below this kind of 61 and a half level."
"Solona levels have collapsed to below 50. And here's, so the last time that this happened, the last two times that this happened, was September 27th of '23, and then Solona went on to basically 10X, and then June 24th of last year, and then we went up what, around 100% or so."
"I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives."