Monthly Recap: Raoul Pal The Journey Man (May 2025)
🎯 Summary
Podcast Summary: Monthly Recap: Raoul Pal The Journey Man (May 2025)
This 38-minute episode of “The Journey Man” features Raoul Pal discussing the accelerating convergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Crypto/Blockchain, framed within his broader macroeconomic analysis driven by liquidity cycles and demographics.
1. Focus Area
The primary focus areas were the synergistic relationship between AI and Crypto/Web3, the macroeconomic drivers of asset prices (liquidity and debt), and a specific deep dive into the Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem and NFT valuation.
2. Key Technical Insights
- Crypto as AI’s Native Currency: Pal argues that crypto is the necessary transactional layer for autonomous AI agents, as traditional payment rails (cards, SMS codes) are incompatible with the speed and scale required for AI-to-AI commerce.
- Blockchain for Data Sovereignty: Blockchain technology is essential for capturing and managing the vast, private data required to train future AI models, ensuring user data sovereignty against centralized tech giants.
- EVM’s Enterprise Stickiness: Despite overbuilding capacity, the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) maintains its dominance in enterprise finance due to the “Lindy effect” and the high risk aversion associated with switching core infrastructure (analogous to why banks still use COBOL).
3. Market/Investment Angle
- AI Token Utility Scrutiny: Pal dismisses the vast majority (99.99%) of current AI tokens as useless, emphasizing the need to focus only on tokens tied to real, utility-driven AI agents capable of performing complex tasks.
- Dollar Weakness as a Catalyst: A sustained weakening of the US Dollar (DXY) is identified as a profoundly positive macro signal, historically leading to massive gains in risk assets, including Bitcoin (up to 592% 12-month gains after significant DXY drops).
- Crypto’s Trillion-Dollar Trajectory: Pal reiterates his long-term view that crypto could reach $100 trillion within 10 years, driven by the entire traditional financial system eventually migrating onto blockchain technology, accruing value to the platform layers (like ETH).
4. Notable Companies/People
- Raoul Pal: Host and primary analyst, presenting his “Everything Code” macro framework.
- ChatGPT, DeepSeek: Mentioned as examples of current, powerful AI models; DeepSeek’s open-sourcing is highlighted as a positive decentralizing trend.
- Square (Ad Read): Mentioned as a business platform supporting small business growth.
- Todd Snyder: Mentioned as a positive example of a business utilizing Square.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
The discussion focused less on explicit regulation and more on structural market dynamics: the inherent difficulty of extracting large enterprises from established tech stacks (like EVM) and the need for decentralization within AI to prevent oligopolies (two or three giants dominating).
6. Future Implications
The conversation points toward a heavily automated world where AI agents conduct significant commerce autonomously, necessitating crypto for payment. Furthermore, the combination of AI, robotics, and blockchain will fundamentally change the relationship between population size and productivity, potentially leading to a more comfortable life with less human labor, though this shift requires navigating the “economic singularity” predicted around 2030.
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for Crypto Investors, Macro Analysts, and Technology Strategists who need to understand the intersection of monetary policy, technological adoption curves (AI/Blockchain), and long-term asset allocation.
Comprehensive Summary
Raoul Pal’s May 2025 “Journey Man” recap centered on the explosive, intertwined growth of AI and crypto, underpinned by his proprietary “Everything Code” macroeconomic framework.
The main narrative arc began with the AI-Crypto Nexus. Pal asserted that AI’s transactional needs will mandate crypto as its native currency, as centralized payment rails are too slow and cumbersome for autonomous agents. He stressed that while many current AI tokens lack utility, the future lies in agents that can transact and build businesses, paying for computing power via crypto. Furthermore, blockchain is positioned as the necessary infrastructure for privacy-preserving data capture, allowing individuals to monetize their data for AI training, thus challenging the data monopolies of current tech giants.
Pal then transitioned to his Macro Thesis, detailing the “Everything Code,” which posits that liquidity debasement (driven by debt cycles and aging demographics) is the dominant factor in asset pricing. He presented correlations showing that 90% of Bitcoin’s price movement is tied to total global liquidity (M2 plus central bank actions). He argued that the current environment—characterized by a falling US Dollar (DXY)—is highly conducive to risk assets, mirroring positive cycles from 2017. A weak dollar eases financial conditions globally, boosting liquidity and asset prices, suggesting significant upside remains for crypto, potentially reaching $100 trillion as the traditional financial system adopts blockchain rails.
The discussion included a specific analysis of Ethereum (ETH). Pal acknowledged the critique that ETH might be “cooked” due to overbuilt L2 capacity, but countered that its entrenched position in enterprise finance (the “Microsoft of finance”) makes it nearly impossible to displace, ensuring its relevance even if other chains handle high-speed retail transactions.
Finally, Pal issued a call to action, suggesting the world has until 2030 to prepare for the “economic singularity,” urging listeners to focus on these fundamental drivers rather than fear-based narratives dominating social
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"And the pen was in the door handle, you know, the time of door handle, the car sitting in the door handle."
"Global M2 is rising faster than 2017. 2017, those who were in the market then, it was a hell of a year for risk assets. I mean, crypto from the low to the Bitcoin, from the low to the 23X that year. Now, Bitcoin won't, but something will. One of the large tokens will do something approximating that."
"So the 12-month gain after a large drop in the dollar: 119%, 175%, 592%. These are big deals because the weak dollar is a change in the denominator of most assets."
"That's why so many young people have come to crypto, because crypto completely upends this system. They can't buy houses, they can't buy all of the other things that older people were able to afford. So they're forced into more speculative, higher-risk assets that have much higher returns. It's the only way out of the trap, and the trap is driven by this debasement."
"What's actually happening, what that mechanism is, is a tax on everybody of 8% a year. A global taxation of 8% a year that you don't understand. You just don't get richer by 8% a year. Add in another 3% global inflation, you're at 11% debasement of currency. That's your hurdle rate to stay as wealthy as you are today."
"90% of Bitcoin's price movements are driven by total liquidity, and 97% of the Nasdaq."