Bitcoin Falling: New TRUMP Tariff Destroying Crypto Prices
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: Bitcoin Falling: New TRUMP Tariff Destroying Crypto Prices
This 66-minute episode of Discover Crypto hosted by DZ, featuring guests Josh and TJ, primarily focused on the immediate market reaction to political news, specifically former President Trump’s proposed tariffs, while also covering broader macroeconomic trends, technical analysis of Bitcoin, and significant developments in the AI sector.
1. Focus Area: The discussion centered on Cryptocurrency Markets (Bitcoin and Altcoins), heavily influenced by Macroeconomics and Geopolitics (specifically US trade policy under potential Trump administration scenarios). A significant secondary focus was the disruptive potential of Generative AI video technology.
2. Key Technical Insights:
- Bitcoin Price Action & Liquidation Models: The market experienced a sharp, short-term pullback following Trump’s tariff tweets, but analysts viewed the drop to $107k (and subsequent stabilization around $110k) as a “healthy little correction,” noting that liquidations were opening up healthily toward $111k–$112k resistance.
- M2 Money Supply Correlation: Bitcoin’s recent price action was shown to be tracking almost perfectly with the M2 money supply, suggesting the recent dip aligned precisely with a sharp drop in money supply figures.
- Potential Breakout Structure: Technical charts suggested Bitcoin was forming a structure similar to late 2023/early 2024, indicating potential for a significant upward “coiling” and breakout, possibly after one final retest of support levels (around $105k).
3. Market/Investment Angle:
- Altcoin Season Potential: If Bitcoin dominance weakens and rejects a key level above 3k (likely referring to a dominance percentage), a significant move to the upside for altcoins is anticipated.
- Corporate Balance Sheet Adoption: The purchase of small amounts of Bitcoin (e.g., a Swedish firm buying 4 BTC causing a 37% stock pump) and larger commitments (e.g., a Chinese EV seller planning to buy 1,000 BTC) signal increasing institutional validation and potential for stock price appreciation for companies adopting BTC.
- Dollar Weakness as a Bull Case: The core long-term bullish thesis remains that continuous fiat money printing across administrations guarantees the depreciation of the dollar, making assets like Bitcoin the necessary “exit strategy” and driving BTC toward $200k and eventually $1 million.
4. Notable Companies/People:
- Donald Trump: His proposed 50% tariff on EU imports and 25% levy on non-US-made iPhones caused immediate risk-off sentiment and market chaos.
- Janet Yellen: Her subsequent comments touting trade deals appeared to counteract the yield-lowering effect of Trump’s tariff news, causing the 10-year Treasury yield to rebound after an initial drop.
- NEAR Protocol: Mentioned as a strong Layer-1 project with an integrated AI narrative, predicted to easily reclaim all-time highs within six months.
- Google V03: Highlighted as a major technological leap in generative AI video, capable of creating hyper-realistic, prompted scenes, signaling massive disruption to creative industries.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion:
- Trump’s Trade War as Rate Manipulation: The hosts speculated that Trump’s tariff threats might be a strategic move (“3D chess”) designed to create recessionary fears, thereby pressuring the Federal Reserve (Powell) into cutting interest rates sooner than expected.
- Texas Bitcoin Reserve: Governor Greg Abbott’s move to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in Texas was noted as further evidence of governmental entities embracing digital assets.
6. Future Implications: The conversation suggests a future where AI video generation (like Google V03) becomes massively disruptive, potentially leading to an explosion in deepfakes and propaganda, necessitating technological solutions (potentially leveraging projects like NEAR and Render) and raising serious IP/copyright concerns (referenced by Jack Dorsey’s stance on removing IP). On the financial front, the relentless printing of fiat currency ensures that Bitcoin adoption as an inflation hedge and wealth preservation tool will only accelerate.
7. Target Audience: Crypto Investors and Traders actively managing short-term positions based on macro news, as well as Tech Professionals and Strategists interested in the intersection of AI, finance, and geopolitical risk.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"That's part of why Bitcoin maintains as much value as it does today is because it's as decentralized as it is."
"Is it a centralized chain that did this? Does that turn you away from Sui, or is centralization a myth? That's what I call it. It's 100% of it. It can be. It's a little bit of both."
"We're promised pure decentralization, unstoppable code, trust the systems. Turns out most major chains have hit the brakes when things went south."
""A large number of validators identified the addresses with the stolen funds and are now just ignoring those transactions on those addresses until further notice.""
"You could have the cure for cancer, but if nobody knows it exists, nobody's going to use it. Like that's Ondo having BlackRock behind them."
"So, it's always going to be this kind of give and take, and it's like that famous quote: 'Give them an inch, they're going to take a mile.' And that's what you got to be cautious of—what the government is when these lobbyists come in and do regulate... and they give them that inch, it's going to give these banks—the banks are the government in this case in terms of lobbying for the financial sector. So, you give the banks an inch, they're going to take a mile from retail, and that's what we got to protect ourselves from."