#1550 Jordi Visser | If You Miss This Bitcoin Run, Don’t Say You Weren’t Told
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: #1550 Jordi Visser | If You Miss This Bitcoin Run, Don’t Say You Weren’t Told
This episode of the Pom Podcast features Anthony Pompliano in conversation with Jordi Visser, a 30-year veteran of Wall Street, focusing on the divergence between traditional economic narratives and the reality being shaped by technological shifts, particularly AI and Bitcoin. The central theme revolves around the advantage of intellectual humility and rejecting outdated frameworks when navigating the current, rapidly changing macro environment.
1. Focus Area
The discussion centers on Macroeconomics, Investment Strategy, and the impact of Exponential Technology (AI and Bitcoin). Key topics included the current state of inflation and recession fears, the surprising resilience of the stock market despite bearish predictions, the politicalization of economic data, and the fundamental shift in investment behavior driven by retail investors and technological disruption.
2. Key Technical Insights
- AI CapEx Accounting Arbitrage: The massive capital expenditure (CapEx) into AI infrastructure (estimated at $300B) is currently recognized as revenue for semiconductor and hardware providers (like Nvidia) but is depreciated over 7-10 years as an expense for the spending companies (Mag 7). This creates a temporary, significant boost to aggregated S&P 500 profit margins that masks future long-term ROI challenges.
- AI-Driven Code Replication: AI tools are rapidly replicating code, threatening the bottom 80% of coding jobs. The speed at which new AI-native companies (like Cursor or Replit) are achieving significant Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) with minimal headcount (e.g., two people vs. 12,500 employees at a competitor) demonstrates a fundamental shift in business scalability.
- Intellectual Humility as an Investment Edge: Visser posits that the advantage held by Bitcoin proponents is their willingness to reject established, historical economic data frameworks because they recognize the world has fundamentally changed due to exponential technology (AI). This “not knowing” allows for better adaptation than those clinging to outdated models.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Rejection of Recession Narrative: Visser strongly disagrees with predictions of a recession retest, arguing that the economy has fundamentally changed (driven by AI and contingent labor) and that policy decisions (the “Fed Put”) will always prevent a deep, protracted downturn (“U-bottoms”). The market is currently experiencing an “I-bottom” (straight up recovery).
- Retail Investor Dominance: Retail investors are exhibiting a persistent, one-directional bid, buying dips aggressively, which contrasts sharply with institutional caution. This behavior, often dismissed by Wall Street, is proving to be the winning strategy in the current market structure.
- AI Disruption and Competition Selection: The aggressive competitive positioning of new AI companies (choosing to compete directly against giants like Google or established incumbents) signals high conviction and potential for massive disruption, suggesting that the market is underestimating the speed of this shift.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Jordi Visser: Wall Street veteran whose perspective emphasizes looking past noise and adapting worldviews to exponential change.
- Anthony Pompliano (Pom): Host, driving the discussion on data skepticism and the role of retail investors.
- Stanley Druckenmiller & Paul Tudor Jones: Mentioned as respected figures whose bearish predictions were invalidated by recent positive policy shifts (tariff pauses) and market resilience.
- Mag 7 (Magnificent Seven): Central to the discussion regarding AI CapEx spending and future profitability concerns.
- Figure Markets & Maple: Sponsors mentioned for their services in crypto-backed lending and on-chain asset management, respectively.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
The conversation highlighted the politicalization of economic data, citing the vast divergence in inflation expectations between political parties in surveys like the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Visser suggests that traditional data sources are becoming unreliable because they are filtered through political lenses, reinforcing the Bitcoin community’s tendency to distrust official metrics. The underlying macro policy remains the necessity of currency debasement to manage high debt levels, which is inherently bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin.
6. Future Implications
The industry is heading toward a future where historical precedent is increasingly irrelevant due to exponential technological growth (AI). Investment success will depend on intellectual humility, the ability to process information quickly (gaining “reps” like an online poker player), and recognizing that policy intervention (the Fed Put) ensures liquidity, favoring assets that benefit from currency debasement (Bitcoin). The disruption caused by AI-native startups will eventually challenge the dominance of the current tech giants.
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for Crypto Investors, Macro Strategists, and Technology Sector Professionals who need to reconcile traditional financial analysis with the disruptive forces of AI and the unique investment thesis underpinning Bitcoin.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"This is the most important point for Bitcoin this year, and this is where I think the short squeeze is going to occur. The correlation between the dollar and bonds is going to be critical in a second after the year. We've had a bounce in stocks. The dollar is barely budged, and rates have stayed higher. When you go through it, what was the problem this year? Stocks, bonds, and the currency went down at some point. That's going to happen again this year at some point."
"I do this weekly video and I go through X and I take all of the institutions, governments, countries, sovereign wealth funds that are putting money in. The adoption is growing rapidly. It's very clear to me. These are not like minor things."
"You're not losing jobs and you're growing CapEx to build out this massive infrastructure, which means more power. So all of the noise that people are hearing, I agree with you. It's really negative. It's a really bad place to worry about the next three years if you need to save money. If you've taken your money out and put it in the bank, because you think Donald Trump's going to end the economy, you're betting against AI. You're not betting against Donald Trump. You are literally betting against something which is compounding at a pace that most people can't comprehend."
"How are you not long stocks? Right? That's what I keep going back to is like, what is the, I don't know, three-plus-year argument to be bearish on pretty much any asset? I just don't see it."
"His big insight is, well, what if you just build the agents right now? You have experts on a platform. So your AI agent may be an expert in you. His AI agent is an expert in his platform. Now there's a huge flow of information back and forth, a lot of automation, you do all stuff."
"The number one thing that AI is doing is replicating code, and even though it won't be ever as good as, let's say, the top 2% of coders, you're still replacing the bottom 80% already, and that number keeps going higher and higher, which means businesses have an advantage."