Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
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Key Quotes
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Topics
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Insights
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google’s Value in a Post-Search World
This 96-minute episode of the All-In Podcast covered a wide array of topics, blending macroeconomic policy analysis with insights from a recent high-profile event in Miami, and touching upon the shifting landscape of technology and venture capital.
The episode began with an extended, anecdotal recounting of a dinner experience in Miami, setting a lighthearted tone before diving into serious discussions. The hosts then transitioned to reviewing their recent stage show in Miami, highlighting the caliber of guests, including Sergei Brin (who reportedly works 70 hours a week at Alphabet), F1 champion Nico Rosberg, and Antonio Gracias (working with Elon Musk on Dogecoin and government transparency efforts). The energy of Tony Robbins was also noted.
The core of the professional discussion centered on Federal Reserve policy in the face of potential trade uncertainty.
1. Focus Area: Macroeconomics (Fed Policy, Tariffs, Inflation), Technology Sector Shifts (Google/AI), and Venture Capital Market Dynamics.
2. Key Technical Insights:
- The discussion highlighted the importance of liquidity measures (specifically subprime credit spreads between lenders like Capital One) as historically reliable leading indicators for potential financial roll-overs, which the Fed may be ignoring.
- The impact of tariffs on pricing is not a 1:1 pass-through; one retailer suggested only about 50% of tariffs are passed directly to consumers, suggesting potential net positive revenue streams for the government without fully crushing GDP.
3. Market/Investment Angle:
- The Fed’s hesitation to cut rates is seen as a reaction to strong underlying economic data (resilient consumer spending) juxtaposed against weak consumer sentiment, leading to a “tariff tantrum” rather than a crisis.
- There is a strong hypothesis that the Fed is politically motivated in its “wait and see” approach, potentially holding back rate cuts until after the midterms, despite blinking yellow lights in credit health indicators.
- The new UK trade deal, which maintains a 10% tariff despite a trade surplus, suggests a new baseline for trade policy that will factor heavily into future inflation and GDP projections, making rate cuts difficult.
4. Notable Companies/People:
- Sergei Brin: Mentioned as working intensely (70 hours/week) at Alphabet, suggesting deep involvement despite his stature.
- Antonio Gracias: Praised for his non-monetized, transparent digging into government issues, often in conjunction with Elon Musk (Doge).
- The Fed/Jerome Powell: Central figures in the macroeconomic debate regarding rate cuts and political influence.
- OKX: Mentioned as a major sponsor of the McLaren F1 team and the launch of their US crypto exchange.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion:
- The primary policy focus was the Fed’s stance on interest rates and the uncertainty introduced by potential Trump tariffs. The new UK trade deal, which includes a 10% tariff, sets a precedent for how future trade negotiations will impact the domestic economy and inflation outlook.
- The hosts debated whether the tariff strategy is “4D chess” negotiation or simply “shaking the snow globe” chaos.
6. Future Implications:
- The industry is heading toward a period where trade policy (tariffs) is a primary driver of inflation and GDP calculations, forcing the Fed into a more complex calculus than standard CPI/employment data.
- The hosts are planning more intimate, high-experience events (like the F1 gathering) for their All-In Summit in LA (Sept 7-9), with party budgets reportedly exceeding $2 million, signaling a focus on high-value, exclusive networking experiences.
- The conversation implicitly suggests a shift in tech focus, moving away from traditional VC models toward established giants like Google (with Brin working intensely), hinting at the “Death of VC” narrative mentioned in the title.
7. Target Audience: Macroeconomists, institutional investors, venture capitalists, and technology executives interested in the intersection of monetary policy, geopolitical risk, and the current state of the tech industry.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
Canva
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project
Blackbird
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investment_firm
stablecoin company
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institution
E-Trade
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exchange
Coinbase
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Exchange (Hypothetical Mention)
Tokens
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N/A (Contextually AI computation, not Crypto)
The CPI
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unknown
What I
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Because I
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Capital One
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Trump Independence Day
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The Fed
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Jay Kelly
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Megan Kelly
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In Summit
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💬 Key Insights
"Well, what we've created here in Silicon Valley in America is these diasporas that start when a company like Google goes public and then those people go create Facebook or go work at Facebook... And then those people become angel investors, they become LPs. This incredible flywheel was cooking."
"M&A, I've talked to M&A people for leap, and they have said it's not even worth bringing it to the point. She doesn't, the discussion, she can connect the dots. You know, she's like, 'I want people to not, you know, play the lottery anymore. I don't care for them.'"
"The question is, if they didn't exist or if the regulations were a lot smaller, what would the upside return be? It's probably 500 to a thousand basis points higher. Much higher, 100%."
"In the case that a large company could kill all the competitors instantly by price dumping. So you take something that people are paying for, like say Robinhood or Coinbase. Google buys Robinhood or Apple buys Coinbase and they just say, 'Everything's free.' Yes, it's better for consumers, but it's not as good for competition."
"If the old paradigm is like measuring search queries and, quote, "market share" is a function of search queries, I don't know if I care about having 99% of that or if I'm actually better off having 80% of something that's now three times bigger."
"I think there's a chance that we're underestimating the power of Google's ad network right now. It's quite possible that knowing your queries in Gemini, knowing what you're doing in Calendar, knowing what you're watching on YouTube could lead to a stream of more targeted ads that do better and are more valuable."
📊 Topics
#artificialintelligence
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#startup
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#generativeai
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#investment
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🧠 Key Takeaways
give $3,000
probably publish that as a standalone
talk about that at some point, but there's huge implications to the economy if this thing stays where it is, huge
do is almost think like, "Hey, what is the next?" Remember when the Mag 7 used to be FANG, and then FANG plus plus, and nobody talks about FANG anymore
think about like, who's gonna be on the new index, which private companies, which public companies? And I think Google for sure has some struggles, but it's got a lot of advantages and a lot of cash