The Greatest Macro Opportunity of All Time? at Sui Basecamp 2025 in Dubai

Unknown Source May 08, 2025 40 min

artificial-intelligence investment startup

🎧 Listen to Original

29 Companies

40 Key Quotes

3 Topics

3 Insights

🎯 Summary

Podcast Summary: The Greatest Macro Opportunity of All Time? at Sui Basecamp 2025 in Dubai

This 39-minute episode features Raul Pal (or his AI avatar, Palvatar) presenting his macro framework, “The Everything Code,” delivered live at Sui Basecamp 2025 in Dubai. The core narrative argues that despite negative headlines, the current environment presents the greatest macro investment opportunity of all time, driven overwhelmingly by systemic liquidity expansion and the unique performance of crypto assets.

1. Focus Area

The discussion centers on Global Macroeconomics, Debt Cycles, Liquidity Dynamics, and the unparalleled investment case for Crypto Assets (specifically Bitcoin), framed against traditional asset performance.

2. Key Technical Insights

• The Everything Code Framework: Pal’s 35-year framework posits that the dominant factor in all macro price movements is liquidity and currency debasement, which is fundamentally driven by the global debt refinancing cycle (averaging four years).
• Liquidity Metrics: Price action across major assets correlates highly with central bank liquidity measures. Specifically, 90% of Bitcoin’s price movements correlate with Total Global Liquidity, and the NASDAQ correlates at 97%.
• The “Banana Zone”: Crypto assets decouple from the liquidity trend during retail frenzy periods, leading to parabolic upside phases (“banana zones”) before returning to the long-term debasement trend line.

3. Market/Investment Angle

• Crypto as the Only Hedge: Due to an estimated 8% annual global currency debasement tax (compounded by 3% inflation), traditional assets like US small caps, REITs, and Treasuries effectively make investors poorer. Only Technology and Crypto consistently beat this hurdle rate, with crypto vastly outperforming all others.
• Bitcoin’s Historical Magnitude: Bitcoin’s annualized return since 2012 (130%) dwarfs all other asset classes, including the NASDAQ, positioning it as the “greatest performing asset in all recorded history.”
• Forward-Looking Setup: The current environment mirrors the 2017 cycle: tightening financial conditions (Q4 2024) led to a temporary slowdown, but anticipated dollar weakness and increasing global M2 liquidity suggest a powerful acceleration phase for crypto is imminent, potentially leading to Bitcoin prices in the $450,000 range based on ISM projections.

4. Notable Companies/People

• Bitwise: Mentioned in an initial sponsorship segment as a leading, established crypto asset manager offering ETFs and private alpha strategies.
• Raul Pal (and Palvatar): The presenter, outlining his proprietary macro framework.
• Scott Besson: Mentioned as a macro hedge fund manager who understands the mechanics of the dollar cycle.
• Janet Yellen: Mentioned as a figure whose public commentary aligns with the “Everything Code” framework regarding the business cycle.
• Square (Sponsor): Mentioned in an ad break as a business platform supporting growth, featuring Todd Snyder as an example.

5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion

• Forced Liquidity Injection: Regulatory shifts like Basel IV and changes to the SLR in the US are forcing global banking systems to absorb more government debt, acting as another mechanism to inject liquidity and debase currency.
• Dollar Dynamics: The current narrative of the dollar ending is dismissed; the dollar remains strong due to its role in global trade (87%) and debt (50% of global debt), but a cyclical weakening is expected, which acts as a massive tailwind for global growth and crypto.

6. Future Implications

The conversation strongly predicts a one-way street for asset appreciation (especially crypto) through the back half of the year, driven by inevitable liquidity injections required to service the global debt load. The key challenge for investors is managing the volatility (the “don’t fuck this up thesis”) during the necessary corrections within the larger upward trend. The “economic singularity” is projected around 2030.

7. Target Audience

Crypto Investors, Macro Hedge Fund Managers, Institutional Allocators, and Sophisticated Retail Investors seeking a data-driven, long-term framework for navigating global markets and justifying significant allocations to digital assets.

🏢 Companies Mentioned

Sui Basecamp 2025 ✅ Event/Project Ecosystem

The VIX ✅ unknown

Investors Intelligence ✅ unknown

So Bitcoin ✅ unknown

Janet Yellen ✅ unknown

Do I ✅ unknown

Basel IV ✅ unknown

Scott Besson ✅ unknown

So I ✅ unknown

Whenever I ✅ unknown

So Solana ✅ unknown

In Square ✅ unknown

Todd Snyder ✅ unknown

Treasury General Account ✅ unknown

Federal Reserve ✅ unknown

💬 Key Insights

"Retail investors had been buying the dip. Institutionalists still haven't. They're all massively underweight."

Impact Score: 10

"It also drives altcoin season. So the fabled altcoin season, everyone's like, it's never going to happen again. It's just a function of the business cycle."

Impact Score: 10

"It also is what drives altcoin season. So the fabled altcoin season, everyone's like, it's never going to happen again. It's just a function of the business cycle. Why? Because household earnings are still subdued. Because the business cycle is subdued, average businesses outside of technology have subdued earnings. The moment the business cycle picks up, everyone has spare cash. Cash gets recycled into assets. People move further out the risk curve. So altcoins are [next]."

Impact Score: 10

"And if we get to that 57 ISM, that puts Bitcoin at $450,000. Is it exact? Will it be exactly that? No. But all of the people are saying it's going to 150, 250 are probably scarred from last cycle without looking at the forward-looking data."

Impact Score: 10

"Global M2 is driven by two things: the dollar itself, which is why it's accelerating so much, and then the global financial system, that's the banks. And what they're doing now, all of the governments around the world and the central banks are forcing the banks to buy debt. Basel IV is a reason for that. The new changes to the SLR in the US, all of this is a way of forcing bonds and debt into the banking system and enforcing the banks to create more money using them as reserves. It's just another way of debasing the currency."

Impact Score: 10

"The last time this happened, the Trump cycle, well, that was the initial correction that we got. It stopped in about March. Well, we got to about April, and then we did this, and from that correction low, it did a 23x. Now, I don't expect Bitcoin to do a 23x because this was much earlier in its adoption curve, but some of the others will, something close to it."

Impact Score: 10

📊 Topics

#artificialintelligence 28 #investment 3 #startup 1

🧠 Key Takeaways

💡 see is now an increase in economic activity going forwards

💡 see the economic surprises starting to rise

💡 start to see very dramatic movements in the price of Bitcoin going forwards