#1528 Jordi Visser | Bitcoin Is Primed To PUMP As The Dollar Collapses
🎯 Summary
Podcast Episode Summary: #1528 Jordi Visser | Bitcoin Is Primed To PUMP As The Dollar Collapses
This 41-minute episode of the Pomp Podcast features Anthony Pompliano (Pomp) in conversation with Jordi Visser, focusing on a perceived systemic breakdown in global finance, the implications for the US Dollar as the global reserve currency, and Bitcoin’s potential role in the emerging decentralized order.
1. Focus Area
The discussion centers on Macroeconomics and Financial System Collapse, specifically analyzing the simultaneous decline in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, which Visser argues signals the official “breaking” of the current global capital structure. Secondary focus areas include the fragmentation of global trade (bipolar world: US vs. China), the future of the global reserve currency, and the role of decentralized assets like Bitcoin and AI in the transition to a new system.
2. Key Technical Insights
- Basis Trade Unwinding: The current volatility in the Treasury market is exacerbated by the unwinding of the basis trade (arbitrage between cash bonds and futures), which was enabled by post-Dodd-Frank restrictions on bank balance sheets, forcing hedge funds to take on this risk.
- Debt Concentration in Benchmarks: US Treasury debt has crowded out private sector debt, becoming the benchmark for the bond market. This concentration means bond funds use futures for leverage, pushing futures above fair value, which destabilizes the cash/futures relationship when volatility spikes.
- Liquidity Crisis: Extreme volatility combined with non-existent liquidity is forcing highly leveraged positions (often held by hedge funds) to liquidate via margin calls, creating a continuous domino effect similar to the 2008 subprime crisis.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Systemic Breakdown Indicators: The simultaneous 5% drop in bonds, stocks, and the dollar in a single month is an unprecedented event outside of emerging markets, signaling a crisis at the “top of the global capital structure.”
- Bitcoin Underperformance vs. Gold: Bitcoin is currently lagging gold because Wall Street still views it as a high-risk tech asset (like NASDAQ) rather than a true safe haven. Visser predicts Bitcoin will rally significantly after the government inevitably resorts to money printing to stabilize the collapsing fiat system.
- Retail vs. Institutional Behavior: Retail investors are exhibiting classic “buy the dip” behavior, capitalizing on the expectation of government intervention (printing), while institutions are constrained by quarterly liquidity demands and prime broker margin calls, preventing them from aggressively buying the downturn.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Jordi Visser: The primary guest, offering a deep macro perspective based on his trading experience, arguing the system is fundamentally broken.
- Donald Trump & Keir Starmer: Mentioned as figures signaling the death of globalism and the shift toward protectionism/bipolar trade structures.
- Scott Besson: Referenced regarding the initial theory of how global trade breakdown would impact bond yields.
- Stephen Mirin: Mentioned for analysis detailing the negative consequences (e.g., trade deficits, security costs) associated with the US maintaining the reserve currency status.
- Core & Polkadot: Featured as sponsors, highlighting Bitcoin DeFi yield opportunities (Core) and scalable, decentralized blockchain infrastructure (Polkadot).
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
- The End of Reserve Status: Visser strongly suggests that US government officials no longer want the burden of maintaining the global reserve currency status due to the associated trade deficits and security costs, even if the general populace still trusts the US.
- Government Intervention: The primary expected government response to disorderly deleveraging is not immediate rate cuts, but rather intervention in the bond market (e.g., halting Quantitative Tightening or creating new liquidity facilities, as seen with SVB). The historical precedent suggests printing will occur to avoid a depression.
6. Future Implications
The conversation suggests the world is rapidly transitioning to a decentralized system, driven by the necessity of navigating the US-China trade impasse and accelerated by the adoption of AI and Crypto. This transition will be characterized by accelerated volatility (up 10%, down 10% days) until the government intervenes decisively to stop the deleveraging, likely through monetary expansion. The ultimate optimistic view is that this turbulence leads to a more decentralized, resilient structure.
7. Target Audience
This episode is highly valuable for Financial Professionals, Macro Investors, and Crypto Strategists who need a deep, technical understanding of the interplay between sovereign debt markets, geopolitical shifts, and the potential inflection points for digital assets.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"That's why I said last week when stocks fall 10% in two days and you go back and look, that since World War II, that's only happened four times, and each one of those is in the history books, meaning the Great Financial Crisis, COVID-19, and 1987."
"Foreign investors own 30, 40% of corporate bonds. If they sell to all the corporate bonds, guess what? A lot of businesses are going out unless the Fed comes in and does what they did in 2020 and they agree to buy credit."
"This week has entered the crisis world for, I think, the entire world. It's very obvious that the dollar falling, stocks falling, and yields going higher, bonds falling in what has been the safest investment in the world... If they sell to all the corporate bonds, guess what? A lot of businesses are going out unless the Fed comes in and does what they did in 2020 and they agree to buy credit."
"If China wanted to tomorrow—now, again, what happened this week was an attempt to put a blockade around China. So if Donald Trump is successful, and everyone would be like, I don't want to deal with China, I'd rather deal with the US. Okay, well, he kind of put everybody in that position. But the reality is, if China wanted to say, hey, all your Windows, we just replicated it, more selling it for $5 as opposed to what we all have to pay for it—AI allows you to copy everything."
"I actually don't think this is a trade war. I think it's a technology war between the US and China moving forward."
"If anything, what this last three weeks have shown the globe, you better be coming up with a new way to exchange things in something that everybody believes in."