Why CoinFund Believes There’s Still a Strong Bull Case for Bitcoin and Crypto - Ep. 816
🎯 Summary
Podcast Summary: Why CoinFund Believes There’s Still a Strong Bull Case for Bitcoin and Crypto - Ep. 816
This episode of Unchained features Seth Gins, Managing Partner at CoinFund, discussing the recent market volatility driven by geopolitical trade policy (tariffs) and why, despite short-term macro headwinds, CoinFund maintains a strong long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
1. Focus Area: The discussion centers on the intersection of macroeconomic policy (specifically US trade tariffs and potential stimulus), crypto market dynamics (Bitcoin vs. Altcoins), and the maturation of the crypto regulatory landscape in the US.
2. Key Technical Insights:
- Bitcoin’s Dual Nature: Bitcoin currently trades with a dual identity: partly as a “digital gold” store of value, but significantly as a high-beta, risk-on asset tied to tech equities (like the Nasdaq). This explains why it gets dragged down by macro uncertainty affecting risk assets.
- Altcoin Season Indicators: The setup suggests a transition toward an environment where Bitcoin dominance starts to fall, signaling the beginning of a sustained altcoin season, driven by anticipated liquidity injections.
- Maturation through Fundamentals: Future outperformance among altcoins will increasingly depend on tangible fundamentals: revenue growth, daily active users (DAUs), and clear mechanisms for token value capture (e.g., buybacks).
3. Market/Investment Angle:
- The “Trump Put”: The market is now factoring in a political backstop—a “Trump put”—where the administration is likely to intervene (via policy changes or stimulus) if market stress indicators, particularly in Treasury yields, become too volatile.
- Stimulus is Coming: The combination of global deficit spending and reactions to trade friction suggests that monetary stimulus (from China and eventually the Fed) is a near-term certainty, which historically acts as a tailwind for crypto.
- Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Bullishness: While the immediate setup suggests volatility, the underlying indicators (VIX, MOVE index) suggest positive forward returns over 30-90 days once the current uncertainty settles, leading to a strong medium-to-long-term outlook.
4. Notable Companies/People:
- Seth Gins (CoinFund): The primary expert providing the investment thesis.
- Arthur Hayes: Mentioned in listener comments regarding his past predictions about market tops.
- Paul Atkins: Mentioned in the news recap as the newly confirmed SEC commissioner, signaling positive momentum for regulatory clarity.
- Circle: Mentioned in the news recap as potentially delaying its IPO due to market turbulence.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion:
- Positive Policy Momentum: Despite macro chaos, the crypto industry has seen unexpectedly positive policy shifts this year, including momentum on a market structure bill, dropping cases against “good actors,” and discussions around a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
- Clarity on the Horizon: The expectation is that the “rules of the road” for crypto in the US will be clarified within the next 12–18 months, creating a much more favorable environment for businesses and developers.
6. Future Implications: The conversation suggests the industry is moving past a phase dominated solely by monetary easing (like 2020/2021) into a new phase where policy clarity and fundamental token economics will differentiate winners. The convergence of stimulus and regulatory acceptance points toward a significant medium-to-long-term growth cycle, likely including a robust altcoin season.
7. Target Audience: Crypto Investors, Portfolio Managers, and Web3 Strategists who need to understand how current geopolitical risks are being weighed against long-term structural tailwinds (stimulus and regulation) in the digital asset space.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
💬 Key Insights
"In a memo titled "Ending Regulation by Prosecution," Deputy Attorney General Todd stated that services like Tornado Cash would no longer be held liable for how users employ them, even in cases of illicit activity."
"The US Department of Justice is halting enforcement actions against crypto platforms such as mixers and wallets, marking a major policy shift under the Trump administration."
"These include narrowing the SEC's oversight of areas like stablecoins, memecoins, and proof-of-work mining."
"Atkins is widely seen as a proponent of reducing regulatory friction, particularly in the digital asset space."
"The US Senate confirmed Paul Atkins as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission in a 52-44 vote, largely along party lines on Wednesday evening."
"Tether is exploring the creation of a US-exclusive stablecoin, signaling a potential pivot in strategy as American regulators push for stricter oversight of foreign crypto issuers."