The 2025 Macro Playbook: Central Banks, Crypto & Chaos ft. Andreas Steno Larsen from Real Vision Pro & Steno Research
🎯 Summary
Podcast Summary: The 2025 Macro Playbook: Central Banks, Crypto & Chaos ft. Andreas Steno Larsen
This 79-minute episode of “The Journey Man” features Raul Pal (CEO of Real Vision) interviewing Andreas Steno Larsen (founder of Steno Research and Real Vision Pro macro contributor) to dissect the current global macro landscape, focusing heavily on the coordinated actions of central banks and governments, and the implications for asset allocation, including crypto.
1. Focus Area
The discussion centers on Global Macroeconomics, specifically the evolving relationship between Central Banks (Monetary Policy) and Governments (Fiscal Policy), the resulting pressure on Bond Markets, and how this environment dictates investment strategy across traditional assets and Cryptocurrency. A key theme is the shift from transparent, rules-based policy to overt, coordinated intervention aimed at financial stability and debt management.
2. Key Technical Insights
- The Visual Thesis Rule: Larsen emphasizes a core principle learned early in his career: if a macro thesis cannot be demonstrated visually via a chart, the thesis is likely flawed.
- Total Global Liquidity as a Key Metric: Due to central banks potentially shifting the burden of bond buying onto the private sector (via regulation), Larsen suggests Total Global Liquidity is becoming a more relevant measure than just central bank balance sheets alone.
- Debt-to-GDP Threshold: The conversation highlights the consensus that once sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios exceed 100-120%, returning to fiscal sustainability becomes exceptionally difficult, often necessitating debasement policies.
3. Market/Investment Angle
- Removal of Left-Tail Risk: Pal and Larsen argue that central banks have effectively removed the “black swan” or left-tail risk from markets by consistently intervening (printing money) whenever liquidity is threatened. This fundamentally skews the risk/reward profile in favor of risk assets.
- Imminent Need for Lower Yields: Given the massive refinancing cycle approaching over the next 24-48 months, the speakers conclude that lower bond yields are inevitable, either through market compliance or direct central bank intervention/yield curve control (YCC).
- Debasement as the Solution: The ultimate mechanism to manage escalating interest payments on massive debt loads is currency debasement, which favors hard assets and inflation-hedges like Bitcoin/Crypto.
4. Notable Companies/People
- Andreas Steno Larsen: Highlighted for his journey from FX trading at Nordea to becoming a prominent, outspoken macro strategist who left institutional constraints to found Steno Research.
- Raul Pal: Discusses his own macro framework and the concept of the “economic singularity” approaching by 2030.
- Janet Yellen: Mentioned for her clear, albeit indirect, signaling to the Federal Reserve regarding the unsustainability of current interest rates relative to US debt financing needs.
- Nordea: Larsen’s former employer, noted for allowing him early freedom of speech on social media, which built his reputation.
5. Regulatory/Policy Discussion
- Overt Coordination: The conversation stresses that the coordination between the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve is now transparent, citing the swift, coordinated response to the 2020 crisis and the Silicon Valley Bank failure in 2023.
- Forcing Private Sector Absorption: A major policy lever discussed is the potential use of regulation to force private entities—banks (via liquid asset requirements), pension funds, and insurance companies—to absorb government debt, effectively acting as funding vehicles for the state.
- Treasury General Account (TGA) Weaponization: The TGA is now actively being used by the government to either supplement or offset central bank actions, indicating fiscal policy is directly playing the “money game.”
6. Future Implications
The conversation strongly suggests a future defined by continued, overt monetary accommodation to service sovereign debt, regardless of inflation readings. This environment necessitates investors holding assets that benefit from debasement. The US trajectory is seen as increasingly mirroring Japan’s multi-decade experience with yield curve management and suppressed rates.
7. Target Audience
This episode is most valuable for Macro Investors, Institutional Strategists, and Sophisticated Crypto/Digital Asset Investors who need to understand the underlying geopolitical and monetary mechanics driving market structure and asset allocation decisions for the medium to long term.
🏢 Companies Mentioned
đź’¬ Key Insights
"I'm here to stay now because you realize that it is the fastest horse to back in a debasement."
"The system is now backstopped officially. That was where I caved then finally."
"All of the debasement bets will be back in fashion as soon as we see the end to rates going up on a global scale."
"So I think they will ultimately accept that tariffs are permanent at the high against them, but in return for the US administration not escalating and escalating and escalating, they'll end up deciding to buy some more Treasuries in return for some dollar liquidity deal, basically some sort of... that's basically some sort of like a multilateral agreement."
"Alpha Hayes yesterday saying, oh no, they're going to devalue their currency. I'm like, they can't. They'll bankrupt their entire property sector because it has dollar debts. 50% of Chinese debt is in dollars."
"But when the factories come back, they are Tesla factories. What do Tesla factories have? Very few humans and a lot of robots and AI. Yes, no jobs. ... It's just going to be 3D printing of Nikes and two supervisors."